NonilexMay 10

#GiftArticle

Brutally honest analysis of Trump’s failure in #Iran & its impact on the #US & #GlobalOrder from Robert Kagan

Checkmate in Iran

It’s hard to think of a time when the #UnitedStates suffered a total defeat in a conflict, a setback so decisive that the strategic loss could be neither repaired nor ignored.

#Trump #failure #TrumpsWar #IranWar #war #ForeverWars #geopolitics #NationalSecurity #MiddleEast #NewWorldOrder
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/05/iran-war-trump-losing/687094/?gift=guxsrl_dAdXUP9zqbQPWxQsNAoumvTwglsKzbozefow

Checkmate in Iran

Washington can’t reverse or control the consequences of losing this war.

The Atlantic
Show threadNonilexMay 10

The…losses suffered at Pearl Harbor, the Philippines, & throughout the Western Pacific in the first months of WWII were eventually reversed. The defeats in Vietnam & Afghanistan were costly but didn’t do lasting damage to the #UnitedStates’ overall position in the world….The initial failure in Iraq was mitigated by a shift in strategy that ultimately left Iraq relatively stable & unthreatening to its neighbors & kept the #US dominant in the region.

#Trump #IranWar #geopolitics #NewWorldOrder

Show threadNonilexMay 10
Defeat in the present confrontation w/ #Iran will be of an entirely different character. It can neither be repaired nor ignored. There will be no return to the status quo ante, no ultimate #US triumph that will undo or overcome the harm done. The #StraitOfHormuz will not be “open,” as it once was. With control of the strait, Iran emerges as the key player in the region &…in the world. The roles of #China & #Russia, as Iran’s allies, are strengthened; the role of the US, substantially diminished.
Show threadPaul Wermer, CC BY-NC-SA 4.0May 10

@Nonilex
And yet, and yet, if the brilliant business minds that finance favorable policy decisions had embraced renewable energy and a shift off of fossil carbon, we could have led the world in supplying energy and fertilizer (and, being us, ammonium nitrate for explosives) , with no need to depend on free passage through the strait.

We knew the basic technology for solar, wind, heat pumps, batteries - and had over 30 years to develop and improve it. (60 years starting with President Carter's solar panels). Think of what we could have done - just look at what semiconductor technology did in the same time period.

Unfortunately, the buggy whip lobby dominated.

Show threadNazo
@PaulWermer @Nonilex The truly maddening thing is, a number of oil corporations already suspected that there were negative consequences in the 70s, had actual *proof* of it in the 80s, and then chose to bear down harder, paying off politicians, stifling results, etc etc. What they *could* have done was invest quietly in renewables, become the top makers/sellers of renewables, and then suddenly release the studies they did themselves that proved global warming. They would have made a killing.
May 10 at 7:07pmWeb
Show threadNazoMay 10
@PaulWermer @Nonilex If you think about how much they've spent over all these decades trying to stifle the truth, paying off politicians with literal millions every single year, spending millions more on campaigns, etc etc, a simple investment in renewables would have actually cost less anyway *and* made more while also being less evil. But, oh noes, competition would have existed. Can't have that.
Show threadChrisMay 10
@nazokiyoubinbou @PaulWermer @Nonilex turns out stupidity isnt free
Show threadSu_GMay 11

@nazokiyoubinbou
In an alternative universe…🪐 I wonder if there’s anyone on their Boards of Directors saying anything like this (or shareholders even…). For a while there I think at least one of the major fossil fuel companies had a green energy division, but it was shut down or they divested (?BP?). Love to know the Board-level stated reasoning for that… and why they all move as a pack, too. 🤔
Important views - thanks for raising & sharing them!🙏🏻

#USPol #fossilFuelCompanies #opportunityCosts #renewables

@PaulWermer @Nonilex

Show threadPaul Wermer, CC BY-NC-SA 4.0May 10
@nazokiyoubinbou @Nonilex
TBH, there was informed speculation about the GHG effect and coal burning 100+ years ago.