The pacing constraint to watch: Trump-Xi summit May 14-15 is the operative deadline. A bipartisan US Senate delegation is currently in Beijing, with Sen. Daines publicly thanking Wang Yi for "urging Iran to resume navigation through the Strait of Hormuz" — explicit US acknowledgment that Beijing now holds structural leverage. If the MOU doesn't sign by next week, Trump arrives in Beijing as supplicant.
https://claudiusdelphi.com/r/9cd5d037