🔏 Matthias WiesmannApr 24

The article is a bit skimpy on details and the curves really simplistic – well it's log scale – but the conclusion I can see, even if fusion power plants would work, they probably won't be cost effective soon.

#fusionpower #powergeneration #capex

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-026-02022-9

Fusion power unlikely to become competitive - Nature Energy

While nuclear fusion power is often hailed as a future source of abundant, clean energy, current dominant fusion designs, magnetic and laser inertial, are unlikely to become competitive due to their expected low experience rates. Accordingly, policymakers should not rely on, or fund, fusion power as a core pillar of future clean energy systems unless designs with different characteristics are developed.

Nature
Show threadStefan UrbatApr 24
a deep coverage of this topic quickly ends in a lecture series, only this to remind: they point out, that alternative, so far less well studied approaches in #fusionenergy like @[email protected] is working on could be much cheaper than classical ones like Tokamak, Stellarator or Lasers
Show thread🔏 Matthias WiesmannApr 24
@stefanurb.bsky.social I would assume that less studied approaches will also have their applicability further out in the future.
Show threadStefan UrbatApr 24
yes, the meanwhile most trusted one, the stellarator (not less than 8 companies following this one now), tends to have the highest CAPEX costs, but you might build a fusion power plant in the 2030s with it, timeline for alternatives is much more uncertain
Show thread🔏 Matthias Wiesmann

@stefanurb.bsky.social 2030 is in 6 years.

That's the timeframe to build a prototype for a train-set, like say the Stadler Zero, which is generally based on an existing frame using well understood technologies, and commoditised components (motors, batteries, etc).

If you are lucky, you can maybe build a demonstrator prototype in 10 years. By then the cost of solar production will be so low that infrastructure and storage costs will dominate.

Apr 24 at 10:06amPhanpy
Show threadStefan UrbatApr 24
quickest believable timeline is for ARC-1 fusion power plant in Virginia, calculated now (construction starts 2027) for 2031, maybe 2033 producing electricity there - with the well known Tokamak approach,all kinds of HTS magnets thoroughly tested and FLiBe blanket tests well underway ( @[email protected] )