anonfunction1d ago

Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

I built this because I was interested in the data. Didn't fully get it to what I wanted, but thought I'd share it nonetheless. Maybe someone has better data sources they could share!

Turns out live ship tracking APIs are expensive so I manually just copied the json from https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:57.4/cente... I'll probably have an ai agent do the same thing on some cron interval, if this gets any fanfare.

To actually know if the port is open without live ship tracking I found https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a... which was perfect, except it has 4 day lag!

I also thought of adding news feed parsing or prediction market data to get a more definitive answer on if it's open right when you load it, but I spent a few hours and am gonna move on for now.

https://www.ishormuzopenyet.com/

MarineTraffic: Global Ship Tracking Intelligence | AIS Marine Traffic

MarineTraffic Live Ships Map. Discover information and vessel positions for vessels around the world. Search the MarineTraffic ships database of more than 550000 active and decommissioned vessels. Search for popular ships globally. Find locations of ports and ships using the near Real Time ships map. View vessel details and ship photos.

Show threadtomtomtom7771d ago

This is a nice overview, but please remove the PolyMarket indicator. It is an obscene prediction mechanism as it creates horrible financial incentives to a war situation. Its degenerate effects have been featured here before. [1]

Let's not condone "measurements" that are effectively ways for people to gain money on important political decisions, affecting the lives of many people.

(1) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47397822

Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story | Hacker News

Show threadFrustratedMonky

> "obscene"

And yet, it is the wisdom of the crowds. The crowds being obscene.

Aren't we all constantly hitting re-fresh for updates, and making predictions.

The prediction markets are just consolidating that 'desire'.

Apr 9 at 12:19amWeb
Show threadtomtomtom7771d ago
Well, it would be if everyone betting wouldn't have an influence on the outcome. That's "wisdom of the crowds". But what if the people putting money on the Strait being closed are the same that close them? Surely, that's no longer the wisdom of the crowds at play. Just perverse incentives.
Show threadFrustratedMonky1d ago

I agree. Maybe an un-expected outcome.

Who could have foreseen that a government/person would actually blatantly start a war, and manipulate bombing raids in order to manipulate a market, without being charged with a crime himself.

In sports betting, it seems obvious if a player throws a game.

In a war? Surely nobody would do this, right? Who could imagine it.

Show threadtomtomtom7771d ago

You don't have to imagine some giant conspiracy. Fact is, that everyone can make a bet, and there are a lot of people with knowledge and influence in the political decisions made.

In sports, at least the outcome is only effected by the sportsmen. Here, who knows which and how many people have inside knowledge and influence that they can use that to their financial advantage?

Show threadFrustratedMonky1d ago

Yeah.
I have to agree. My view has changed in last week.

I never imagined that markets could be so corrupted by those in power, without some other consequences somehow balancing out. Like being arrested, or removed from office.

Forget PolyMarket.
We literally have bets being made on oil futures, directly before a tweet by the president. Openly profiting on direct minute by minute manipulation. Openly corrupt.

Show threadheavyset_go1d ago
Putting bounties on people's heads and public lynchings are the wisdom of crowds and its obscenity in action.