During the first few weeks of Operation Desert Storm we'd routinely see footage of entire battalions of Iraqi soldiers walking up to the first American GI they could find waving white flags, believing that the worst thing that could happen to them at the hands of the American military was a shower, an MRE and a pack of cigarettes. The mythos of America as just actor was largely intact then, and that mythos saved a lot of American lives. And then Abu Grahib happened, and that all ended.

Suddenly the prospect of surrendering yourself to American custody meant maybe getting tortured to death and maybe getting sexually humiliated as part of the process; everyone saw it was better to die fighting. In days the entire tide of that conflict in that whole region changed; there was no recovering from it.

We're looking at the long unwinding of that story here today, everywhere. Nobody can or will believe in Americans, or even the idea of America, again. That's over now.

I think the only real question right now is how the rest of the world manages the unwinding of dying empires. What does America make, these days? Obsolete cars, "innovative" financial instruments, rented software, GPUs, guns and corn. Did I miss anything?

I sometimes wonder what Britain minus London looks like on a spreadsheet. What's the all-money side of the "only then will you realize that you can't eat money" coin?

Alanis Obomsawin once, often paraphrased, said "When the last tree is cut, the last fish is caught, and the last river is polluted; when to breathe the air is sickening, you will realize, too late, that wealth is not in bank accounts and that you can’t eat money."

I, naively, believe money is useful. But once the last haven is shuttered, once the last rent is sought, once the last hoards of wealth are taxed.... who are you - what is left - when money is not enough to make money?

Somewhat longer form blogpost here: https://exple.tive.org/blarg/2026/04/08/the-decline/
The Decline | blarg