Alexander Clarkson
Because social media discourse deflects attention away from physical consequences of war towards almost metaphysical debates about leadership will and national character a lot of people end up neglecting how structural economic factors shape long term outcomes
8:20amWeb
Show threadAlexander Clarkson11h ago
Trump and Netanyahu's war won't bring the Iranian regime down quickly enough to make this war look like a clear victory for the US, but the massive application of Americal military power can destroy what is left of Iran's economic model
Show threadDmitry Grozoubinski11h ago
I guess the question is, to what extent are the people currently running Iran responsive to the plight of Iranian small business owners - and what shape and direction will the anger of such business owners take?
Show threadAlexander Clarkson11h ago
The economy was approaching death spiral before this war started. Hyperinflation triggered the revolt in January. The regime might have repressive capacity to keep revolts down for now, but collapse of electricity grid, supply chains, water supply and currency will affect its freedom of action
Show threadDmitry Grozoubinski11h ago
I guess the flipside of that equation from their perspective might be, soon after the bombs stop falling people might start asking the reasonable question of why the state is failing to provide basic services... ... it's a lot easier to explain why nothing works when the Great Satan is bombing.
Show threadAlexander Clarkson11h ago
If blaming the US would have been enough then you wouldn't get revolts in Iran in the first place. The Americans have been squeezing Iran for decades and the January protests happened after the 12 day war in the summer. The regime is vulnerable in a postwar era if it can't get FDI for reconstruction
Show threadAlexander Clarkson10h ago
Hormuz tolls won't cover that bill. The regime needs a deal with the US that secures sanctions relief to get into long term stability
Show threadDmitry Grozoubinski10h ago
I'm not sure I follow that rebuttal. Blaming the US/Israel obviously doesn't work forever, but it probably works while they're actively bombing you. The protests didn't happen during the 12 day war, they happened like 6 months after... which is kind of my point.
Show threadDmitry Grozoubinski10h ago
The regime IS in a vulnerable position in the postwar era if it can't unlock FDI, capital and sell its oil. Which is why it may err on the side of keeping things rumbling to delay the 'postwar' bit...
Show threadAlexander Clarkson10h ago
The point of the rebuttal is that Iran will exist as a strategic challenge long after the Americans give up and go away. Even if the US can declare victory and leave, the Middle East and Europe will have to deal with a society whose economic foundations have fallen apart for years to come.
Show threadAlexander Clarkson10h ago
Social media generates discourse dynamics that focus attention on 24 hour news cycles at the expense of thinking through long term structural effects.
Show threadAlexander Clarkson10h ago
Or what Judah said bsky.app/profile/juda...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:bnwgpceahml6a7nemat4ouac/post/3mivf3oqbkc2a