Two papers came out last week that suggest classical asymmetric cryptography might indeed be broken by quantum computers in just a few years.

That means we need to ship post-quantum crypto now, with the tools we have: ML-KEM and ML-DSA. I didn't think PQ auth was so urgent until recently.

https://words.filippo.io/crqc-timeline/

A Cryptography Engineer’s Perspective on Quantum Computing Timelines

The risk that cryptographically-relevant quantum computers materialize within the next few years is now high enough to be dispositive, unfortunately.

@filippo
> In symmetric encryption, we don’t need to do anything, thankfully

Ok. So the IoT garden must rewind to the Kerberos or physical provisioning. I can't imagine lattices on small silicon yet.

Thank you, Filippo.

@ohir @filippo I’m involved in modernizing crypto for protocol that needs to work at 9600 baud. These key sizes are going to be a terrible problem… and that’s just the bandwidth side, them there”s RAM and CPU on small embedded devices.
@mikaeleiman @ohir yup, it's not great, but it is what it is. (RAM is kinda fine if you optimize for it, and CPU is actually faster than classical. But yes, size sucks.)
@filippo @mikaeleiman @ohir Small devices which are part of a bigger system, but which are unable to take care of themselves should be behind a gateway/proxy anyway.
@KoosPol @filippo there’s no gateway to hide behind in this case unfortunately, it’s all small devices (and no Internet involved). And we’d like to be able to firmware update existing devices to the new stuff, replacing with new hardware would be very expensive.
@mikaeleiman @filippo Then you have an system architecture problem. You can't have important devices in operation without proper safeguards. And if one of the safeguards is crypto, while these devices can't deliver, then you need to tuck them behind a gateway. And if you can't then the devices aren't important enough. You can't have the cake and eat it.

@KoosPol @filippo That's why I'm looking forward to someone coming up with a quantum resistant variant of key exchange with smaller keys that's workable for smallish embedded MCUs :]

Currently it's looking like there's no way forward for our users that's not expensive, disruptive and time consuming.