Two papers came out last week that suggest classical asymmetric cryptography might indeed be broken by quantum computers in just a few years.

That means we need to ship post-quantum crypto now, with the tools we have: ML-KEM and ML-DSA. I didn't think PQ auth was so urgent until recently.

https://words.filippo.io/crqc-timeline/

A Cryptography Engineer’s Perspective on Quantum Computing Timelines

The risk that cryptographically-relevant quantum computers materialize within the next few years is now high enough to be dispositive, unfortunately.

@filippo @robpike Here's an NSA publication on this topic, from 10 years ago. What I love about this is how they describe their requirements: they have to field systems and guarantee their security for 30 years into the future.

https://archive.org/details/cnsa-suite-and-quantum-computing-faq/mode/2up

CNSA Suite And Quantum Computing FAQ : National Security Agency : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive

NSA Guidance on crypto algorithms, and defending against quantum computing.

Internet Archive