A cryptography engineer's perspective on quantum computing timelines

https://words.filippo.io/crqc-timeline/

A Cryptography Engineer’s Perspective on Quantum Computing Timelines

The risk that cryptographically-relevant quantum computers materialize within the next few years is now high enough to be dispositive, unfortunately.

Building out a supercomputer capable of breaking cryptography is exactly the kind of thing I expect governments to be working on now. It is referenced in the article, but the analogy to the Manhattan Project is clear.

Prior to 1940 it was known that clumping enough fissile material together could produce an explosion. There were engineering questions around how to purify uranium and how to actually construct the weapon etc. But the phenomenon was known.

I say this because there’s a meme that governments are cooking up exotic technologies behind closed doors which I personally tend to doubt.

This is almost perfect analogy to the MP though. We know exactly what could happen if we clumped enough qubits together. There are hard engineering challenges of actually doing so, and governments are pretty good at clumping dollars together when they want to.

The Manhattan project employed some significant % of all of America. A project of that scale will likely never happen again.

It was also about far more than the science. It was about industrializing the entire production process and creating industrial capability that simply did not exist before.