Fuck China, threat to human life on earth

The solution with the least harm would be for the USA and other NATO allies to help the Iranians overthrow the despots and cut ties with China.

Disagree. A democratic Iran with 90 million population, and presumably no sanctions, is a growth powerhouse that produces loads of things, among which loads of weapons. For Israel’s security apparatus, that’s a country one “bad” election away from launching a lot more weapons at them. That’s something which Israel will not let stand. Which is also why they are so obviously not going for regime change but instead for inducing a failed state that’s ungovernable, can’t organize production, won’t have sanctions lifted, would perpetually have insurgency that can be bombed at will, or in technical terms mow the lawn.

There’s no outcome other than diminished US or Israeli power, or both, that would produce stability in the region given Israel’s ambitions and US interests in the region.

As for the Iranian people, their only hope for better life can come from internal struggle against their gov’t over time that would be made a whole lot easier if their economic situation is made better through lifting of sanctions, or if sanctions remain - through massively increased trade with China. (Cause the more resources people have, the more they have left to organize as change does not come through magic and spontaneous revolutions are a fantasy.) If the EU is smart, they would drop their sanctions against Iran. Which is actually plausible if more shit keeps hitting the fan and their oil supply does not resume, which could force them to break ranks with the US on this.

I think Israel, without unlimited weapons backing of the US (a condition I think would occur if the US loses badly) would stop casual strikes against Iran. They would know they risk a barrage of missiles that they don’t have the interceptors for. And if Iran gets the nuke, then MAD would be in effect. Israel seeing Iran as an existential threat now, not in the future would sit tight and perhaps even open a dialogue. The problem today is they consider Iran a threat in the future. And mind you they don’t consider them a threat so much to Israel today than to their plans for expansion in Lebanon, West Bank, Syria and so on.

I think middle east would be much much safer with iran having nukes

Oh I’m considering this from the perspective of the regional reason for instability which for a while now has been Israel. For long-term stability, Israel should face mutually-assured-destruction from Iran without the promise of unlimited weapons and interceptors from US. Israel should also face existential threat from Iran if they expand in to neighbouring countries, like they’re currently doing in Lebanon. If the US-Israel military command causes significant economic pain in the US, I think the US public opinion would force the US to break from Israel, which should usher the conditions I’m envisioning - of Israel facing Iran and the region alone, and perhaps even without unlimited US weapons. Def not the only possibility, but the one I think would make things a lot less explosive over the long haul.

E: I think China might push Iran to settle with the US in order to halt the economic destruction that would affect them too, possibly in exchange for greater economic China-Iran cooperation despite US sanctions.