LISTEN ⏵ I dislike bursting bubbles, but this talk of Trump being held accountable for the “war crimes” he’s threatening is just very wishful thinking.

Even if strikes on civilian infrastructure were widely labeled war crimes under the Geneva Conventions, the odds of the International Criminal Court indicting Donald Trump are extremely low. The U.S. isn’t even an ICC member, rejects its jurisdiction, and can block any United Nations Security Council referral.

Even if an indictment somehow …

happened, enforcement is the real barrier: the ICC has no police and relies on countries to arrest suspects. In practice, leaders from powerful states don’t get detained, so the most likely outcomes would be political fallout, sanctions, and travel constraints, not a trial.

And since his corrupt Supreme Court has given him immunity for any official acts, it’s all but a certainty that he will not be held accountable by any official process. And since his election prospects won’t be relevant, …

and we know he doesn’t care about the GOP’s prospects (because he seems unable to see any connection between their fate and his), the chances of him facing any justice at all are effectively zero.