The threat is comfortable drift toward not understanding what you're doing

https://ergosphere.blog/posts/the-machines-are-fine/

The machines are fine. I'm worried about us.

On AI agents, grunt work, and the part of science that isn't replaceable.

The thing is, agents aren’t going away. So if Bob can do things with agents, he can do things.

I mourn the loss of working on intellectually stimulating programming problems, but that’s a part of my job that’s fading. I need to decide if the remaining work - understanding requirements, managing teams, what have you - is still enjoyable enough to continue.

To be honest, I’m looking at leaving software because the job has turned into a different sort of thing than what I signed up for.

So I think this article is partly right, Bob is not learning those skills which we used to require. But I think the market is going to stop valuing those skills, so it’s not really a _problem_, except for Bob’s own intellectual loss.

I don’t like it, but I’m trying to face up to it.

> So if Bob can do things with agents, he can do things.

The problem arrises when Bob encounters a problem too complex or unique for agents to solve.

To me, it seems a bit like the difference between learning how to cook versus buying microwave dinners. Sure, a good microwave dinner can taste really good, and it will be a lot better than what a beginning cook will make. But imagine aspiring cooks just buying premade meals because "those aren't going anywhere". Over the span of years, eventually a real cook will be able to make way better meals than anything you can buy at a grocery store.

The market will always value the exact things LLMs can not do, because if an LLM can do something, there is no reason to hire a person for that.

Precisely. The first 10 rungs of the ladder will be removed, but we still expect you to be able to get to the roof. The AI won't get you there and you won't have the knowledge you'd normally gain on those first 10 rungs to help you move past #10.

There are a lot of people in academia who are great at thinking about complex algorithms but can't write maintainable code if their life depended on it. There are ways to acquire those skills that don't go the junior developer route. Same with debugging and profiling skills

But we might see a lot more specialization as a result

They can’t write maintainable code because they don’t have real world experience of getting your hands dirty in a company. The only way to get startup experience is to build a startup or work for one

Duh, the only way to get startup experience is indeed to get startup experience.

My point is that getting into the weeds of writing CRUD software is not the only way to gain the ability to write complex algorithms, or to debug complex issues, or do performance optimization. It's only common because the stuff you make on the journey used to be economically valuable

> write complex algorithms, or to debug complex issues, or do performance optimization

That’s the stuff that ai is eating. The stuff I’m talking about (scaling orgs, maintaining a project long term, deciding what features to build or not build etc) is stuff very hard for ai