The threat is comfortable drift toward not understanding what you're doing

https://ergosphere.blog/posts/the-machines-are-fine/

The machines are fine. I'm worried about us.

On AI agents, grunt work, and the part of science that isn't replaceable.

> Schwartz's experiment is the most revealing, and not for the reason he thinks. What he demonstrated is that Claude can, with detailed supervision, produce a technically rigorous physics paper. What he actually demonstrated, if you read carefully, is that the supervision is the physics. Claude produced a complete first draft in three days. It looked professional. The equations seemed right. The plots matched expectations. Then Schwartz read it, and it was wrong. Claude had been adjusting parameters to make plots match instead of finding actual errors. It faked results. It invented coefficients. [...] Schwartz caught all of this because he's been doing theoretical physics for decades. He knew what the answer should look like. He knew which cross-checks to demand. [...] If Schwartz had been Bob instead of Schwartz, the paper would have been wrong, and neither of them would have known.

And so the paradox is, the LLMs are only useful† if you're Schwartz, and you can't become Schwartz by using LLMs.

Which means we need people like Alice! We have to make space for people like Alice, and find a way to promote her over Bob, even though Bob may seem to be faster.

The article gestures at this but I don't think it comes down hard enough. It doesn't seem practical. But we have to find a way, or we're all going to be in deep trouble when the next generation doesn't know how to evaluate what the LLMs produce!

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† "Useful" in this context means "helps you produce good science that benefits humanity".

> And so the paradox is, the LLMs are only useful† if you're Schwartz

Was the LLM even useful for Schwartz, if it produced false output?

Maybe it saved them some time? So far the studies seem to lean toward probably the LLM didn't save them any time.