In starting a war with Iran the USA has kicked off a conflict it cannot escape.

The USA policy in the middle east has for years seen deals with Iran's neighbours for protection in exchange for military bases in the region. These countries have invested billions in these deals.

Now the USA (and Israel) have declared war with Iran, Iran quite rightly is demanding all USA military bases be removed from neighbouring countries for it to consider stopping the war. This is quite reasonable as they have now proven a direct threat and now Iran's trust of the USA and Israel has been effectively scrapped there really isn't any other option for them.

The USA cannot simply walk away, as the conflict they started will continue until an agreement with Iran is reached; and it is unlikely Iran will fold on their demand to have USA military bases removed.

Nor can they afford a protracted war with Iran in its current form, and Iran's neighbours will only put up with being attacked for so long. They are likely already pressuring the USA to finish the war one way or another. Which is why there is talk of a ground invasion in Iran, which will be equally catastrophic for USA troops as Iran has warned, and will likely require the whole region attacking Iran as a collective force which would undoubtedly be World War III.

Realistically the only possible way out of this is if perhaps the EU (as a sufficiently large block) negotiate the USA leaving the area, including its military bases, of which the USA will likely have to pay reparations for reneging on the deals. There will need to be some serious deal sweeteners added also and Iran may well demand Israel is moved. Which could be argued would be best for Israel's people as particularly without the USA they simply do not have enough resources to continue fighting in a region that increasingly sees them as a destabilising force.

@bananamangodog
Interesting analysis & projections / forecasts but I can’t imagine Israel moving even if it *is* - as you say - “best for Israel’s people”.

#USPol #Iran #MiddleEast #conflictResolution

@Su_G me neither. Which is scary given the alternatives