CassandrichHmm, prediction markets are evil in general and I'm pretty much entirely opposed to their existence.
But it would be kinda hilarious to bet huge amounts of money that a 2048-bit RSA key won't be cracked by 2050.
Fortunately I don't think there's any way to set up such a bet. Someone would have to know the factors to generate the key, and they could use/leak that knowledge to cheat.
Demi Marie Obenour@dalias Is there a method (indistinguishability obfuscation?) to generate the key without knowing the factors?
@alwayscurious No, at least not known. For EC that works because the entire range (essentially) is valid public keys so you can just pick a random public key. But with RSA the valid public keys (semiprimes) are extremely sparse.