Deschanel2027

Race thread: 🇧🇪 Ronde van Vlaanderen 2026, Apr 5

https://sh.itjust.works/post/57851154

Race thread: 🇧🇪 Ronde van Vlaanderen - sh.itjust.works

The Tour of Flanders will take place this Sunday, to close the series of Flemish bergs races with the one which is considered the most sought-after, and therefore will see all the top riders gather, including those who passed by all the previous flandriennes. The race starts from Antwerp for 280 km; the first half leading to the bergs area is basically flat, until the first climb of the Old Kwaremont exactly mid-race. From there on, it goes up and down on asphalted or cobbled bergs, until the last flat section (less than 15 km) to the finish line in Oudenarde. A Google Maps link to what I believe is the area of the huge beer marquees in Old Kwaremont [https://maps.app.goo.gl/wJgCBpjKjN36N2Rr6] Last year’s top-5 will be present : Pogatchar (🇸🇮 UAE), Pedersen (🇩🇰 Lidl-Trek), Van der Poel (🇳🇱 Alpecin), Van Aert (🇧🇪 Visma) and Stuyven (🇧🇪 Lidl-Trek then, Soudal-QS now). And Evenepoel (🇧🇪 Bora), who I think never rode a flandrienne of any sort, will join. It seems that Ganna (🇮🇹 Ineos), who just won the little sister trial Across Flanders on Wednesday, is not expected to race on Sunday. 🌞 There might be a tiny bit of rain on Saturday, but the road and cobbles should be mostly dry on Sunday (until gallons of beer and piss are poured over). PCS page [https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/ronde-van-vlaanderen/2026] PCS profile [https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/ronde-van-vlaanderen/2026/result/info/profiles] -------- Last French winner was Jacky Durand, back in 1992, and there is no obvious sign that this 33 years long depression should stop this year. After all, the previous victories dated back to the fifties with Bobet and Forestier 🙂 -------- The women race is significantly lighter, with only 165 km and perhaps half the bergs. L. Kopecky (🇧🇪 SD-Worx) won 3 of the last 4 editions, and she will be there, after staying hidden in the peloton on Wednesday, while Reusser (🇨🇭 Movistar) and Vollering (🇳🇱 FDJ) were spending their strength at the front of Across Flanders. PCS page [https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/ronde-van-vlaanderen-we/2026]

Apr 2 at 3:00pmWeb
Show threadDeschanel20271d ago
According to the current forecast, there is a slight possibility of getting a small shower around 2 PM tomorrow.
Show threadpet1t16h ago
WSW winds, 4-5 Bft, could also play a role
Show threadpet1t16h ago
Goooood morning on the holiest of holy days!
Show threadpet1t15h ago

So, what’s everyone’s guess?

I think Van Der Poel wins, Wout 2nd, Pogi 3rd

Show threadDeschanel202713h ago

This year, it is hard to imagine a few decent outsiders, beside the 3+1 big favourites.

If I had to make a bet, I’d be very conservative and unimaginative, and say Pogatchar 1^st^, then Van der Poel, then either Van Aert or the Angry Chip. I’d add that I only see major crashes being able to change this. Perhaps a big echelon in the first could wear one of those out and even the field or let a couple of outsiders in, but otherwise…

Show threadpet1t12h ago

I admit putting WVA 2nd is a patriotic choice (hell, I’d even put him 1ste but MVDP is something different, plus statistically he wins every even year haha). Pogi podium over Evenepoel is just realistic, really. Remco will have to be very good to top-5.

Rooting for Van Aert, mainly! Looked sharp at the start interviews as well

Show threadpet1t11h ago
UCI says all riders that ignored the red light for the train should be taken out of the race. that includes pogacar and evenepoel
Show threadpet1t10h ago
ooooh koppenberg gonna be wet!
Show threadCarstenBoll6h ago
Well… At least it wasn’t an 80 km solo this time. But everyone rode for Pog today, it seemed.
Show threadDeschanel20272h ago

The only two things I could note about this race were:

  • Van Aert🇧🇪 erratic positioning cost him and his teammates several violent efforts before and right when the race kicked in. It may have cost him the final 3^rd^ place.
  • Pogatchar🇸🇮 was ‘playing’ with (or worried by) Evenepoel🇧🇪, and pushed a bit more each time the Belgian was about to catch him up. Van der Poel🇳🇱 relays were slower and were allowing the Belgian to come back. It is the second race after San-Remo, where we see Pogatchar🇸🇮 so anxious (or careful/meticulous) about what happens behind him.

The rest, well… We cannot say that nothing happened, as there were different sequences. But absolutely everything happened as planned, there wasn’t a comeback, or anything like that. At least for the win and podium, I cannot tell about what happened behind, for example how Madouas🇫🇷 ended up 16^th^ in a group for 14^th^ place or such, despite not having been in the strong men group nor the morning breakaway.

The scenario was crystal clear. One acceleration on the flat by Politt🇩🇪 – did it last 2 miles or even just 1 mile? –, followed by a push by F. Vermeesch🇧🇪 in a mini-mini-berg were enough to sort the wheat from the chaff. And then the expected top men left. And then the expected top man left. And everyone was doing a solo Time-Trial. And then it was the finish line.

What else?

  • Pedersen🇩🇰 did well, he saved as much energy as he could and yet gave everything he had, but he is still below the other 4 at the moment (and his teammate Vacek🇨🇿 is still not good this year).
  • I am surprised that not a single man from the morning breakaway managed to stay with the less good riders of the strong men group.

A dry ‘Ronde’ doesn’t provide many surprises. It is a contest of Watts, much like a long mountain climb finish. There are no incidents, no rain/cold bonuses and long-distance penalties, to shuffle the chances a bit.

I see that Evenepoel🇧🇪 got a ‘sticky bottle’ penalty (like Ganna🇮🇹 the other day). It may explain the one cobbled berg in which he didn’t lose as much time as in the others 😀