Nicolas Kayser-Bril4d ago

Now this is funny: The German government claims that AI will increase GDP by 11% by 2030 (start date not provided), based on a PwC study which the consultancy seems to have itself retracted 🤔

German gov't: https://www.digitale-technologien.de/DT/Navigation/DE/Themen/KuenstlicheIntelligenz/KuenstlicheIntelligenz.html

PwC study (404): https://www.pwc.de/de/business-analytics/sizing-the-price-final-juni-2018.pdf

Künstliche Intelligenz

Show threadpettter4d ago
@nicolaskb That report is a really fun read tbh. Here's an archived link: https://web.archive.org/web/20250617133806/https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/analytics/assets/pwc-ai-analysis-sizing-the-prize-report.pdf
Wayback Machine

Show threadNicolas Kayser-Bril4d ago

@pettter Thanks, but apparently they had country-specific version like so: https://web.archive.org/web/20220929163836/https://www.pwc.de/de/digitale-transformation/business-analytics/kuenstliche-intelligenz-sorgt-fuer-wachstumsschub.html

I was hoping to read the country-specific methodology but now that I think of it they probably just did a rule of three to get it.

Künstliche Intelligenz sorgt für Wachstumsschub

Digitale Assistenten, Chatbots und automatisierte Autos: Lösungen auf Basis Künstlicher Intelligenz (KI) sind auf dem Vormarsch. Und dieser Trend wird sich weiter beschleunigen.

PwC
Show threadpettter4d ago
@nicolaskb "We talked to our economists and some partners at Fraunhofer and fed some numbers into a model" seems to be the model more or less.
Show threadpettter
@nicolaskb Like, this is the full extent of their method section
Apr 2 at 12:07pmWeb
Show threadNicolas Kayser-Bril4d ago
@pettter 😂 we can't even give them the credit of having used an LLM to come up with that nonsense as it's from 2017.
Show threadpettter4d ago
@nicolaskb What is the difference between an LLM and a management consultant half-assing their job, really?
Show threadNicolas Kayser-Bril4d ago
@pettter That I can control the damage done by the LLM by turning it off?
Show threadpettter4d ago
@nicolaskb I mean the same _can_ be done to management consultants, but I think there are better ways...
Show threadpettter4d ago

@nicolaskb They refer to this report on the impact of automation as well: https://www.pwc.co.uk/economic-services/ukeo/pwcukeo-section-4-automation-march-2017-v2.pdf

AFAICT it's got the same problems as so many of these "impact reports" in that they equate work with completing a series of tasks, and if a "task" can be done automatically, then that has no further impact.