Easter Benny 🐇🥚

A search tell me that an average very large oil tanker carries around 2 million barrels of oil. Give the current oil price is about $108 per barrel, if the Iranians start extracting a toll of $2m per tanker, that adds ~1% to the cost. A small tanker carries 550,000, which would be 4%. It's a self-inflicted cost by the Americans, but that's what happens you swing your appendage around blenders.

Via @devxvda:
https://mastodon.ie/@devxvda/116332028049320033 #iran #oilCrisis

Dr.Nick (@[email protected])

Iran is charging toll fees to ships wanting to travel through the Strait of Hormuz. Up to $2m each to pass. There's no published rate card. Prices are based on vibes alone... Sounds like a McKinsey analyst's fever dream.

mastodon.ie
Apr 2 at 9:54amWeb
Show threadDr.Nick1d ago

@feijoa The strait isn't closed. Never has been.

The insurance cost for any ship travelling through it went absolutely astronomical - war risk premiums are now up to $5m per voyage on a standard tanker, before the toll is even factored in.

One assumes the $2m toll is to expedite getting supplies out, based off whether Iran likes you

Show threadEaster Benny 🐇🥚1d ago
@devxvda It's mined though, and only the Iranians know where the mines are.
Show threadLeszek Ciesielski1d ago

@feijoa @devxvda I'm not sure it is, not yet. French were suggesting yesterday Iran didn't have time so far to mine it, and might struggle to - their ships might also meet a swift end should they try.

That doesn't mean the drones and missiles aren't enough of a threat - but those are active, not passive. As in, each time require a conscious decision to interject the ship's passage.

Show threadEaster Benny 🐇🥚1d ago

@skolima @devxvda Fog of war, and everything is conjecture at this point. There's a good thread here about what might happen, but the consensus with the war bloggers is that with the Kharg Island attack imminent, the US is going to have to bring a couple of landing ships in through the strait, so the Iranians have a strong motivation to mine. There's also an assumption that you need big ships for laying mines, but that's not true any more.

Either way, Iran has the means to do what it wants.

Show threadEaster Benny 🐇🥚1d ago

@skolima @devxvda Ukraine proved that you can do effective sea area denial with sea drones. Iran learned and reportedly has a large fleet of them hidden all over the place.

The Ukrainians also mined the entire Black Sea coast, which is why Odessa hasn't been taken, and Russian air supremacy (at the time) didn't help prevent it there.