ingve5d ago

DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

https://www.jeffgeerling.com/blog/2026/dram-pricing-is-killing-the-hobbyist-sbc-market/

DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

Today Raspberry Pi announced more price increases for all Pis with LPDDR4 RAM, alongside a 'right-sized' 3GB RAM Pi 4 for $83.75. The price increases bring the 16GB Pi 5 up to $299.99. Despite today's date, this is not a joke. I published a video going over the state of the hobbyist 'high end SBC' market (4/8/16 GB models in the current generation), which I'll embed below: But if you'd like the tl;dr:

Jeff Geerling
Show threadJollySharp0

There are ups and downs in the prices of components. Often people forget that during COVID prices were high for SBCs because of supply chain issues. Video cards just were not available in the UK and afterwards (every supplier had long lead times) and are still relatively expensive (at least there are now lower priced options). Raspberry Pis you couldn't get hold of and many people (Jeff Included) was using a website checking for availability which was non-existent for anything other than low end models.

I remember 15-20 years ago when hard drive prices went up through the roof because there was a flood in Thailand and it too years for prices to come down.

There is going to be supply chain issues due to the current Geopolitical situation (Helium comes out of the Gulf and that is need in chip manufacture) is also going to affect the price of components.

Eventually in a few years (as the article states) the situation will change. It just sucks at the moment.

TBH I am more worried about my ability to fill up the tank on my car as both Petrol and Diesel is unavailable locally. I can make do with whatever computer equipment I have.

Apr 1 at 10:37pmWeb
Show threadzozbot2345d ago

> People are quick to forget that during COVID prices were high for SBCs because of supply chain issues.

inb4 AI has the same supply chain effects as a worldwide pandemic. I guess those AI doomers that talked about it being the end of the world had it right!

Show threadJollySharp05d ago

Doomers IMO are just click baiting.

There is a saying that is often trotted out my economists "That the cure for high prices, is high prices".

There is a consumer market and business need for DRAM outside of AI. Someone will fulfil the need as there is a high incentive to. It just going to take a bit of time for this to happen. My equipment is going to be fine for another few years. So I am going to just hang tight and make do with what I got for now.

Show threaddwattttt5d ago

> Someone will fulfil the need as there is a high incentive to

And those uses which fall short of the new threshold, e.g. hobbyist SBCs, slowly fall away.

Show threadJollySharp05d ago

In reality were they going to survive anyway? I would wager likely not.

Raspberry PI is the defacto standard for SBCs. Almost all the other SBCs had significant problems usually around software support and also third party support e.g. Hats, cases etc.

Show threadChyzwar5d ago
Main producers actually reduced dram output in 2026. When you have few players with very high capital cost you will end up with cartels like light bulb cartel.
Show threadJollySharp05d ago

Someone will come in when the price goes up enough. It will take time, but it will happen. What people are complaining about is that the time for this to happen is too long.

Oh look, there is a player coming into the market it seems:

https://economy.ac/news/2026/02/202602288291#:~:text=If%20eq...

EDIT: In fact many other chinese companies are now expanding into DRAM because of the high prices. Which confirms exactly what I said.

CXMT Gears Up Post-IPO, Setting Stage for Four-Player DRAM Reshuffle

As China’s largest DRAM producer, ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), moves toward an initial public offering, attention across the semiconductor market has converged on the company. CXMT plans to deploy IPO proceeds to improve yield rates in existing processes and expand production lines. After years of losses, the company returned to profitability last year, strengthening the financial rationale for listing. With memory supply shortages persisting, expansion incentives for DRAM makers have increased, and CXMT’s post-IPO capital execution could reshape competitive dynamics.

The Economy
Show threadForgeties795d ago
So are AI evangelists to be fair.
Show threadJollySharp05d ago
It is almost as if two or more things can be true at the same time.
Show threadttul5d ago

This time is different. https://ca.pcpartpicker.com/trends/price/memory/#ram.ddr5.60...

The price for a couple of 32GB sticks is now over $1200 after being stable at about $200 for several years until last September. That's not a blip; that's 6-fold hike and there is no sign it is slowing down any time soon.

Show threadJollySharp05d ago

Did you not read what I said? I couldn't even get a replacement video card at any price during the height of COVID and believe you I had the money to pay for one. I couldn't even get a Raspberry PI (any model) for about a year. They were constantly out of stock.

> That's not a blip; that's 6-fold hike and there is no sign it is slowing down any time soon.

How does that invalidate anything I said? As states in the article this will change, it will take years but it isn't forever.

I find it hard to believe that people here cannot make do with whatever hardware they already have.

I also don't believe those small SBCs would have survived long term anyway. Most people just use a Raspberry PI. It is either a MiniPC or a Raspberry PI.

Show threadmeroes5d ago

Ya I mean gfx card was pretty bad during Covid.

Discord groups that had real-time line counts and pictures of the line at most best buys across the country (US).

The only way I got one was overpaying and a lottery system that bundled it with other hardware because they knew everyone would still buy it. It was impossible to buy online normally as you needed some kind of automated way to buy it before stock zeroed the minute it was posted.

You could pay a scalper for a gfx card, but stores had none. Now, stores have RAM at least.

Show threadDylan168075d ago

> Did you not read what I said? I couldn't even get a replacement video card at any price during the height of COVID and believe you I had the money to pay for one.

You're comparing to memory sticks that went up 6x. If you were offering anywhere near 6x MSRP and you couldn't get a video card... I don't believe you.

https://www.pcmag.com/news/scalpers-have-sold-50000-nvidia-r...

https://www.pcmag.com/news/read-it-and-weep-heres-how-bad-nv...

These show GPUs available for 1.5-2.5x price, which fits what I remember.

> I couldn't even get a Raspberry PI (any model) for about a year.

https://picockpit.com/raspberry-pi/why-are-raspberry-pi-pric...

I didn't look into Pi prices a whole lot, but this suggests they were continuously available for 2-3x price.

Show threadJollySharp05d ago

I am in the UK. Not the US!

> If you were offering 5x MSRP and you couldn't get a video card... I don't believe you.

My 1080Ti had died. I had to use a 8800GTS from the late 2000s for about a year. As that was the only GPU I had. I have no iGPU on my CPU.

There was at one time, no stock available. Not on Amazon, Not on Overclockers, Not on Scan. They had some weird lotto system taking place on most sites.

Scalpers claimed to have cards. But I wouldn't risk sending a lot of money to some random seller on ebay.

> Unless this article is massively misleading, sure it was out of stock at 1x price but it wasn't out of stock at 2-3x price.

Again I am in the UK. You could not buy any PI other than 1GB model and maybe the zero. Both of which were useless to me.

Show threadDylan168075d ago

Okay, UK, maybe that changes things more than I expected. But what about ebay and the sites that replaced classified ads? And is it unreasonable for me to say that you could have bought a US listing and had it reshipped?

Edit since you added: Scalpers claimed to have cards. But I wouldn't risk sending a lot of money to some random seller on ebay.

Even with ebay's buyer protection?

Well not to be mean but I think "I refused to use ebay" invalidates your claim that you couldn't buy a card.

Show threadJollySharp05d ago

> Even with ebay's buyer protection?

I've had problems with it before. I'd rather not going through the hassle and/or risk in the first place.

There are still plenty of scams on ebay. During this era there were people scamming. e.g the box for a GPU as the GPU and then putting right at the bottom of the listing it was only the box.

> Well not to be mean but I think "I refused to use ebay" invalidates your claim that you couldn't buy a card.

What you are doing is being pedantic. It is fucking tiresome when people do this online.

If you are going to be a smart arse, I will modify my statement to say "I could not get a card from a reputable seller as they were all out of stock and did not wish to risk buying from a less reputable one".

I would be foolish to trust some overpriced (or underpriced) listing on ebay. I've had an ebay/paypal account now for 25+ years, it is just dumb to do this.