Google's 200M-parameter time-series foundation model with 16k context
TimesFM (Time Series Foundation Model) is a pretrained time-series foundation model developed by Google Research for time-series forecasting. - google-research/timesfm
I somehow find the concept of a general time series model strange. How can the same model predict egg prices in Italy, and global inflation in a reliable way?
And how would you even use this model, given that there are no explanations that help you trust where the prediction comes from…
What is not generally understood is that these models don’t predict egg prices or inflation in Italy.
They decompose a time series into trends, seasonality and residuals. That’s what they are actually modelling.
They cannot predict wars in the Middle East influencing inflation unless there is a seasonal pattern(s).
Do these models predict on just a single time series then?
it is far more useful for predictions to look for correlations between time series. This is far more complex than looking for correlations in general because most time series trend up or down and therefore correlate.
codepawl