"How do you see this ending?"
Do you really want to know? Okay, fine - I think this is it. In so much as it is possible for "the world to end" we are here. I believe Trump is delusional, surrounded by sociopaths who will convince him to attempt to take Kharg Island. I believe that operation will fail, catestrophically, and that US casualties will be staggering. And then I believe Trump will order his military to nuke Tehran.
And after that, all bets are off.
I'm sorry. It's what I see.
And, you can ignore what I'm saying for all the good it'll do either of us - but just remember, going on about 12 years ago now I said "I see nazis, and genocide, and billionaire supervillians taking the species off the ecological cliff while building out police states to protect themselves from us as the world burns quite intentionally." This was not a popular prediction then either.
I have a habit of seeing things, that turn out to be true, when I read the newspaper enough.
The reality is, but for one general who literally committed treason, I think Trump would have tried to nuke his way out of crisis all the way back in 2020. Milley thought so too, that's why he committed treason to order the missile commanders to ignore Trump during the transition. Nobody has really actually addressed how serious that moment was and now we're here again.
It's not prophecy, it's analysis. But my analysis is the tiger is cornered and will lash out with ALL the force it can muster.
Now, the world going to end because Trump nukes a, again, HIGHLY URBANIZED, DENSELY POPULATED area of 10M ppl? No.
But can you tell me what China does 10 minutes after we launch? Russia? North Korea? Pakistan? Israel?
No, you fucking can't. And neither can Trump.
This is what I meant when I said "he might have just touched off WW3" and some of y'all pooh-poohed that in comments.
The rest of the planet has agency and they aren't in a codependent relationship with pedo moron discount Hitler.
The problem is I don’t think you’re too far from the truth.
They have put the US in a corner where there is no way to win. The best that can be hoped for is a tactical withdrawal and resumption of negotiations, for which Iran holds more cards than the US.
Ukraine and latterly Iran have shown that the concept of a super power no longer exists. You can have technical dominance in all domains but you cannot stop low cost drone swarms from levelling the odds. We need to rethink the shape of the world in that regard.
So yes, rather than lose, I fear the release of nuclear weapons so much. The subsequent release of more weapons regionally or globally wouldn’t benefit the states releasing them so perhaps that will be the line drawn in the slowly cooling remnants of an ancient and beautiful city.
And hopefully, hopefully, other nuclear states will simply shun the US and see it become a pariah state if that action is carried out.
But more than anything I wish us to be wrong.
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