Gregor Schmidt

What went wrong in our industry that people started to use the term "Guesstimate" instead of "Estimate"?

Every estimate is just a guess based on incomplete knowledge. That's why it's an estimate and not a fact. Yet, but people seem to feel the need to reinforce that part.

#softwareengineering #projectmanagement

Mar 30 at 1:47pmWeb
Show threadBenjamin1d ago
@schm To me those are still two things. If I "estimate" something, I do so based on incomplete, but existing and profound knowledge about a subject. I might be able to say "this feature will take two days to implement, and another three to properly test and debug".
If I need to "guesstimate" I do so based on little to no knowledge about a topic. I would say "to be able to bake 2 small buns a day, I guess I'd need about 80 square meters of farmland for wheat".
Show threadBenjamin1d ago
@schm though even that guesstimate is unfair, as I know someone who actually did the math on it :)
Show threadGregor Schmidt1d ago

@blindcoder I'm wondering if you intentionally switched the domain for your guesstimation example. 🤔

Would you also consider it a guesstimate if you're estimating how longit would take to implement, test and debug an implementation task that you're unfamiliar with at the time of the estimation?

Show threadBenjamin1d ago

@schm Yes, I did for emphasis.

To stay in my domain: Implementing an IDM workflow I can estimate, same as doing an IDP migration of 10k users.

Developing Kernel drivers, setting up Terraform for AWS from scratch or bootstrapping a Confluence installation I'd need to guesstimate based on other people's experience and my own judgement of the complexity.

Show threadGregor Schmidt1d ago
@blindcoder makes sense. Then I think it's just a matter of how frequently people feel the need to use the term guesstimate compared to estimate.
Show threadTimo Geusch1d ago
@schm from my perspective, quite a few organisations tend to treat an estimate as a fixed commitment and statement of fact rather than, well, and estimate.
Show threadGregor Schmidt1d ago

@tgeusch Yes. That's exactly what I was hinting at. I was thinking the same.

Estimates turning into deadlines once they are on the table.

Show threadTimo Geusch1d ago
@schm agreed, and a lot of us are supposed to call ourselves lucky if the deadline doesn’t turn into estimate minus a week.
Show threadGregor Schmidt1d ago
@tgeusch which brings us to the "scotty principle" and any estimation becomes irrelevant.
Show threadFelix 𝄢 (what is normality)1d ago
@schm we need that guesstimate as asap as possible!