I feel like I did in February and March 2020, only this time, it's about the war in Iran rather than a novel virus. Big things are coming, and too few care to acknowledge or believe it.
In February and March 2020, I was one of a few people warning what the “novel coronavirus” was about to do. People wouldn't (or couldn't) listen because no one could conceive of businesses closing, conferences canceled, or hospitals bursting.
1/x
(Even in retrospect, people still can't perceive it, with a growing collective amnesia about how bad things really got and the belief we “overreacted” to overflowing morgues and a million dead Americans.)
But, if you're really paying attention to the news—not just the headlines or the rhetoric—we're again at a precipice of something incredibly disruptive. People think we've seen the worst of our war with Iran, given how gas prices have spiked. That is simply the tiniest tip of the spear.
2/x
Within weeks, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will start causing real and long-lasting damage, such as shortages of medication and exploding costs for fertilizer this planting season. Gas prices will go even higher. Food prices will rise. Airlines will cancel flights. Shipping costs will get even pricier. Businesses will close temporarily due to shortages, and some will shutter permanently because they cannot sustain themselves through the disruptions.
3/x
Helium needed to run MRI machines will be in short supply. Some countries in the developing world could see a 50% reduction in their harvests compared with prior years due to fertilizer shortages, causing food crises and more mass migration.
At this point, the best-case scenario we can hope for is that Trump walks away from the war. He'll claim victory, but he'll leave Iran controlling the Straits of Hormuz, and Iran will almost assuredly charge tolls to raise money to recover.
4/x
That means this costly war will leave Iran with more radical leadership and in a stronger economic position, and the US will be in greater danger of terrorist attacks and with permanently higher prices. And that's the BEST-case scenario—but at least things will seem fairly normal.
Things only get worse if that doesn't happen. The Trump administration is sending more troops to the Middle East and is reportedly drawing up plans for a ground invasion.
5/x
US taxpayers will need to foot the bill, and the deficit will rise even further. For example, the US has already fired around 25% of its inventory of Tomahawk missiles in Iran, and at current production levels, it will take as much as 9 years to replace those missiles. A longer war, significant disruptions, businesses closing, jobs lost, more needless death, and even greater economic and geopolitical disturbances.
6/x
And yet, everything seems pretty normal today, doesn't it? We gripe about higher prices at the pump and longer lines at airport security, but life is chugging along as if it's normal.
Remember how normal everything felt in early March 2020 and how rapidly the world changed in the six weeks that followed? We may again be in a period like that.
7/x
It wouldn't hurt to contact your representatives in Congress, ask them to assert themselves as is their responsibility, and bring a hasty end to this painful conflict. But, otherwise, the entire world is now sitting on a bus being driven recklessly by American leaders with uncertain and varying goals and dubious judgment.
Put on your seatbelts.
8/x
@alienghic @augieray 1/2 We've started with ordering a large and functional greenhouse to expand the range of vegetables that we can grow.
We are too far north for solar to be viable in the winter but I am starting with a small solar panel to produce enough electricity to keep basic internet access alive in the lighter months of the year.
I might looking into building a wood gas generator to hook up to a petrol generator as back up for the colder months of the year.
@alienghic @augieray 2/2 Maybe investigate getting a 2-4kW solar panel array to be placed in the bit of the garden that gets most winter sun.
Solar collectors as an additional heat source for our central heating system is on the cards.
Our small barn includes a room set up as a chicken shed. Time for some chickens which would give us eggs and fertiliser?
Then time to get that composting toilet (still sitting in its box) set up in the garden to add to our fertiliser production.
@alienghic @augieray If you can make the panels vertical in winter this will increase the efficiency if there is a layer of snow on the ground. The reflected light from the snow makes a difference.
Our power draw is very low as hot water and heating is produced by wood burning ranges and most of our cooking in the cooler months is done on the ranges.
We use less than 20 kW hours a day and rarely go over 2 kWh/h. But even that is a bit difficult to achieve with solar here in the winter.
@alienghic @augieray Not very windy where we are and not consistently windy.
Even if it was windy our property sits at the bottom of a bowl in the landscape so there isn't a good high spot on our plot for a small wind turbine.
That is why I have been considering a wood gas based electrical generation system.
The system would produce electricity and useable amounts of waste heat energy as a bonus.
Augie Ray
Diane
Eggs now in different baskets.