CassandrichHmm, prediction markets are evil in general and I'm pretty much entirely opposed to their existence.
But it would be kinda hilarious to bet huge amounts of money that a 2048-bit RSA key won't be cracked by 2050.
Fortunately I don't think there's any way to set up such a bet. Someone would have to know the factors to generate the key, and they could use/leak that knowledge to cheat.
You can't just say "any key" because then you get what the QC scammers do now: picking a 'key' they already know the factors for.
None of this is non-obvious. It was the standard for classical cracking challenges dating back to the late 90s or so. But with QC it's "you get to pick the number you claim you can factor!" 🤡
Of course the more practical problem: whether these criminal markets will be solvent long enough to collect your winnings. 🤡