Charlie Stross15h ago

https://www.france24.com/en/france-confirms-oil-crisis-says-30-40-gulf-energy-infrastructure-destroyed

France's Finance Minister Roland Lescure revealed on Wednesday that between 30 and 40 per cent of Gulf refining capacity has been damaged or destroyed by Iran's retaliatory strikes, leaving a shortage of 11 million barrels a day on global oil markets. Lescure warned it could take up to three years to restore damaged facilities, and several months to restart those that were urgently shut down.

Business - France confirms oil crisis, says 30-40 percent of Gulf energy infrastructure destroyed

France's Finance Minister Roland Lescure revealed on Wednesday that between 30 and 40 per cent of Gulf refining capacity has been damaged or destroyed by Iran's retaliatory strikes, leaving a shortage of 11 million barrels a day on global oil markets. Lescure warned it could take up to three years to restore damaged facilities, and several months to restart those that were urgently shut down.

FRANCE 24
Show threadGraydon14h ago

@cstross So the fertilizer supply is messed up for this year and next and maybe the year after, which means food availability (not price; availability) seems likely to get iffy.

The Gulf States do not experience domestic food surplus; their ability to feed the workforce that maintains those refineries comes into question. (Their willingness to feed the workforce of a shut down refinery is another thing.)

This starts to look like it could be a question of recovering the community of practice.

Show threadWellsiteGeo13h ago
@graydon @cstross
They'll repatriate the workforce to Pakistan (Bangladesh) 70% or India 30% if they're not ticketed for repair/ reconstruction tasks.
It's the Gulf. That is what you do.
Show threadGraydon13h ago

@WellsiteGeo @cstross I would expect, yes.

Be more interesting if the repatriate the ship crews, who are collectively starting to run out of food, fresh water, etc. because they're stuck.

Show threadWellsiteGeo
@graydon @cstross
They'd have a *lot* of problems "cold stacking" ships. Installing double-point anchorages alone would take months. * If * they (Qatar esp) have sea space.
Without crew, you have no generators, no riding lights, no option for avoidance in event of another ship losing power under way (see recent Humberside crash+fatality).
Airlines don't remove crew when they stack aircraft. Shiplines also don't remove crew when they stack ships.
Not going to happen this year.
10:40pmWeb