Iran war is a test the Gulf cannot afford to fail - Sopuli

> The central problem posed by this conflict is not only the immediate security risk to GCC states caught in the crossfire. It is the strategic opportunity cost – the quiet, unquantifiable loss of a historic window to transform the region into a permanent hub of global infrastructure, finance and technology. … > What we are witnessing is not simply a breakdown of rules, but a fundamental debate about whether those rules still apply. Are we in an era of transformation, where great powers rewrite the terms of engagement? Or are we in an era of erosion, where the rules simply dissolve, leaving only the law of power? > For smaller nations – including the Gulf states, despite their wealth and influence – this ambiguity is a nightmare. In a world without rules, the strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must. … > There is a bitter irony in the position of the Gulf states. For decades, their security strategy rested on a simple calculus: alignment with the US. American bases, weapons and security guarantees would deter aggression and ensure stability. > Yet that very alignment has become a primary source of vulnerability. Iran has systematically targeted not only US facilities, but the infrastructure of GCC states. The message is unmistakable: if you host American power, you share American risk. And when the US decides to act – whether in defence of Israel or in pursuit of its own strategic interests – it does so without asking permission. The partners are expected to bear the costs. … > This brings us to the final and most urgent point: the window for the Gulf to cement its role as a global hub is open now. It may not stay open indefinitely.