Soaring oil prices could bring the Kremlin billions — but they still won’t fix the Russian economy

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2026/03/26/soaring-oil-prices-could-bring-the-kremlin-billions-but-they-still-won-t-fix-the-russian-economy

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Soaring oil prices could bring the Kremlin billions — but they still won’t fix the Russian economy

In just a matter of weeks, the Middle East war has taken on enormous significance for Russia’s leadership. After the first two months of the year, the country’s federal budget deficit had already spiraled out of control. But the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 27 percent of global seaborne oil and petroleum products trade passes — triggered a sharp spike in commodity prices. This could allow the Kremlin to hold the annual deficit to its target of 1.6 percent and keep military spending at the top of its priorities. Even so, this windfall won’t resolve the deep structural problems plaguing a war-battered economy. Meduza explains what the high price of oil means for Russia’s pocketbook.

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