Yes, this is yet another civil #war brewing in #Somalia.
This one is to be added to the war over the new Northeast state, the war with Jubaland, the Hiraan-Hirshabelle conflict and Puntland’s “secession”
Surely, the Mogadiscio administration has time and again been clumsy and heavy-handed (an article follows on that aspect). However, the finalization of the constitution was absolutely necessary for any hope at stabilizing the Somali state.
The easy answer is to call for the status quo to be reestablished, in line with demands from the “periphery”. This “periphery” are in effect small dictatorships which positions align with that of their leaders. Laftagareen, in Southwest state, has only been elected once, in 2018, for a 4 year mandate.
Today, most of Southwest state is held by Al Shabaab. Many government-held towns are still besieged by AS. Yet Laftagareen only seeks, in a manner similar to Puntland’s Deni and Jubaland’s Madobe, a reelection on his own terms.
Madobe has recently been reelected for a third term, after constitutional changes, a fact that would have raised alarm in any sovereign country. These maneuvers are neither in the national nor regional interest, but serve personal ambitions and clanic rivalries.
On the one hand, Mogadiscio must not lose sight that the necessary reform can only reach its state- and security-building objective if it allows for the law and democratic values to prevail eventually. On the other, there was never any hope for Jubaland or Puntland to get on board, even before the crisis with #Ethiopia and the #UAE.
Mathieu Gotteland