Baldur Bjarnason“Opinion | I Predicted the 2008 Financial Crisis. What Is Coming May Be Worse. - The New York Times”
If anything, this downplays the risks as it seems to assume that there has to be something to "AI" to warrant calling it a "boom".
Not a financial analyst or professional predictor of things but it strikes me that there are quite a few things lining up to potentially make up a Very Bad Time™ for all of us:
- Energy crisis
- Gas crisis
- Fertiliser crisis
- Semiconductor shortage (because of the energy and Helium shortages)
- Plastics shortage
- Food price inflation
- Drugs shortage
- Private debt crisis
- "AI" stock market bubble
- Housing bubble leading to crisis
...
...
- Too Big to Fail institutions collapsing due to above crises
- Weather phenomena caused by the global climate crisis (heatwaves and hurricanes)
- Shortage of all sorts of important goods due to energy, gas, plastics, semiconductor, or food shortages
- Tungsten and rare earths shortage (China likes to cut exports of resources when other crises happen)
- Rise of authoritarianism pretty everywhere. Escalates because of other crises
...
- Too Big to Fail institutions collapsing due to above crises
- Weather phenomena caused by the global climate crisis (heatwaves and hurricanes)
- Shortage of all sorts of important goods due to energy, gas, plastics, semiconductor, or food shortages
- Tungsten and rare earths shortage (China likes to cut exports of resources when other crises happen)
- Rise of authoritarianism pretty everywhere. Escalates because of other crises
...
...
- US munitions depletion leading to all sorts of actors trying their luck.
- The deterioration of the reliability and security of the software holding the world together because the industry went all in on YOLO vibe coding.
- Ongoing tariff war (that's still a thing)
- Ongoing Cuba crisis
- A recurrence of the Greenland crisis
- Taiwan
- The entire middle east is a mess that's getting messier
...
- US munitions depletion leading to all sorts of actors trying their luck.
- The deterioration of the reliability and security of the software holding the world together because the industry went all in on YOLO vibe coding.
- Ongoing tariff war (that's still a thing)
- Ongoing Cuba crisis
- A recurrence of the Greenland crisis
- Taiwan
- The entire middle east is a mess that's getting messier
...
Isaac Freeman@baldur Almost all of these are direct or indirect consequences of our global dependence on oil. The indirect consequences are mostly about the concentration of wealth in oil companies that can no longer hrow by drilling more cheap oil.
Which is terrible, because we could have predicted this general situation a hundred years ago. But it's also where the hope lies, because the oil economy is dying. Its death throes are horrifying, but it is dying.