I just realized that what Trump is doing with the financial markets is spending down his trust capital. right now, a certain number of traders react when he says something, but every time he tells a lie, the reaction is less and the reversal comes faster. we are approaching a perilous point where "the markets" don't believe any communication coming out of the federal government, and that is **extremely dangerous** for when we really do need the feds to speak out and calm markets.
people like Jay Powell understand this. Trump and the people around him do not. I experienced 2008 as an adult, and the credibility of federal messaging was very important for ensuring the entire financial system didn't just lock up. it was touch and go there for awhile. if we got a similar financial crisis with Trump and his goons at the wheel... I don't even want to think about it. terrifying.

@peter Y'know, I've been trying to figure out how you'd get the complete viability confidence crisis that led to the functional near-shutdown of the Great Depression when you _don't_ have a competing system out there.

I don't think this necessarily does it; economic movers would still be able to trust other data sources in other places.

But I do think it gets closer.

@moira @peter
As much as it would have caused massive disruption and poverty and global instability the best thing that could have come out of 2008 would have been to let the financial institutions collapse. Instead we arrive at today where the result of that collapse will be an order of magnitude worse.
@OneInterestingFact @moira no, the best thing to do would have been to nationalize their assets, jail those responsible, and bail out homeowners instead. letting the system collapse would have caused enormous suffering, we just bailed out the wrong people and then no one got punished.

@peter @OneInterestingFact Indeed I was in the nationalisation camp at the time, and led a much smaller protest than I would've liked in Seattle's Westlake Park against the bailout. (It was too complicated for most people to get so a tiny number of people signed up. But I think we did a decent job of being informative; people were generally _on our side_ about it, and the conversations were good.)

But yeah, what needed to happen was nationalisation, removal of upper levels of management and appropriate prosecutions. Then - imo - follow it by reprivatization where possible. This would've been a great time to bring back _real_ anti-trust enforcement, too, _starting with_ these financial institutions.

But instead, well... and here we are.

@peter @moira
From personal experience I can tell you that nationalisation is rarely a good long term option.
It can be useful in the short to medium term but goes rotten over time as bureaucracy becomes self perpetuating.
@OneInterestingFact @moira i disagree. there are plenty of intermediate options between "let capitalism collapse" and "the State owns the means of production." for example, you can nationalize and then wind down later, with the government taking the profits instead of the private sector. make private investors eat shit, book the profits to the public. also, there are plenty of good examples of successful long-term public banking options.
@OneInterestingFact @peter @moira

This isn't a problem inherent in nationalization though, it's an issue of political will. State-owned entities are as good as the State wants them to be. If the public sector is bad in a domain don't look at the state owning it, look at what the state is doing with it.

Private entities, the for-profit kind, are bound to be bad: profit above all else always leads to shitty situation for everyone except those who own it, by definition. It is literally the worst option we can have.

(Private non-profit is a different beast but then we have to look how it's funded and it can get messy: either a company is at its helm, or it's funded by donations aka trying to survive month after month)

@rakoo @moira @peter

After WW2 private for profit mostly used to understand the social contract that for a society to work we all need to contribute and we all need to benefit. Then along came Thatcher and her ilk with “no such thing as society” and 50 years later…

@OneInterestingFact @moira @peter disagree. capitalism has never been about benefitting everyone. Thatcher's neoliberalism is the logical evolution of capitalism: less worker's power thanks to less organization, less state support of people, more coercion. A little bit of capitalism is like a little bit of rot, it never stays put

@OneInterestingFact @rakoo @moira @peter

Tell that to the disabled, or to the Vietnamese, or to the Congolese

@burnoutqueen
That's a very fair point. I was talking about a very privileged part of the world.

@rakoo @moira @peter

@OneInterestingFact @peter @moira because the US comes in and forces a regime change? 😏