Charlie StrossACOUP is grimly pessimistic about the Iran war: "it is not possible for two sides to both win a war. But it is absolutely possible for both sides to lose; mutual ruin is an option." https://acoup.blog/2026/03/25/miscellanea-the-war-in-iran/
Olivier Roux (moose)@cstross I’d say he’s rather realistic, sadly.
Graydon@otolithe @cstross Optimistic.
He's assuming the US will look at the cost of occupying Iran and either not want to do it, realize it can't do it, or try to finesse something, and that this unbearable cost will constrain politics and policy.
He's not looking at the other two obvious alternatives, which are kinetically induced infrastructure collapse and maintaining it for the couple years necessary for 90% population reduction, or the more impatient approach and using nukes.
Jim Hubbell