Beep6d ago

A million new SpaceX satellites will destroy the night sky — for everyone on Earth

https://lemmus.org/post/21093378

Show threadDale6d ago
LEO satellites decay very quickly every one of them will burn up in the atmosphere within 10 years. They need to be replaced constantly. As soon as spacex goes out of business these will all fall out of the sky.
Show threadManjushri

Don’t count on it. These things don’t just zip along in their orbits. LEO is crowded. They have to maneuver to avoid collisions… a lot.

Over the past six months, Starlink satellites have been increasingly performing collision avoidance maneuvers. According to a report filed by SpaceX with the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC), SpaceX broadband satellites were forced to avoid more than 25 thousand times from December 1, 2022 to May 31, 2023. And since their launch in 2019, the total number of maneuvers has reached 50 thousand.

If Starlink or any other mega-constellation company loses control of their satellites for any reason, there could be collisions. A recent study (Note: PDF) suggests that a sufficiently powerful CME could cause a runaway Kessler Syndrome in as little as 2.8 days.

Starlink risk creating a giant accident in orbit

Since the launch of the first Starlink spacecraft in 2019, SpaceX satellites have been forced to avoid more than 50 thousand times

Журнал The Universemagazine Space Tech
Mar 25 at 6:38pmWeb
Show threadtempest5d ago

I mean with proper regulation or would be slightly better. If they can maneuver to avoid collisions they can likes deorbit themselves at a quicker pace.

The main issue is if ever they went under someone would buy it, or try to buy it, at a discount. So they likely wouldn’t go away even if Star link went under.

Show threadgandalf_der_12te5d ago

Eh, i’m not so sure. I just did a quick doodle.

My opinion is that when a collision happens, it’s probably very unlikely for each fragment to actually stay on a stable orbit around Earth. Chances are high that it gains a lot of energy and the orbit is significantly distorted. Now, if an orbit is already very close to Earth, that means that any distortion will make it not fit tightly around Earth anymore, instead will make it go elliptic and therefore on trajectory of collision with Earth. The only way a fragment would not do that is if it’s accelerated perfectly sideways, in which case it would continue to circle around Earth for 10 years before deorbiting due to atmospheric friction. So, the cascading is a bit limited.

Show threadchildOfMagenta5d ago
I don’t think you are familiar with orbital mechanics. A collision would barely disturb an orbit.
Show threadgandalf_der_12te5d ago
then are the fragments dangerous?
Show threadchildOfMagenta5d ago
Definitely.
Show threadteyrnon4d ago
The fragments are dangerous to other things in low earth orbit. They will burn up before they hit the ground here. So really it might be for the best because I would rather see a world where every single satellite is destroyed at this point.
Show threadDale5d ago
And the orbits of that debris would still decay within a decade in LEO.
Show threadKilgore Trout5d ago
What’s your point? We would have a LEO like a minefield for 10 years.
Show threadcole5d ago
even less for Starlink