As of 2026-03-02, the state of the art in quantum decryption has cracked a:

  • 22-bit RSA key
  • 6-bit elliptic curve key

https://forklog.com/en/quantum-computer-cracks-tiny-cryptographic-key

The IBM QC that cracked the 6-bit key uses 133 qubits.

Some new research suggests that RSA-2048 could be cracked with as "few" as 100,000 qubits.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2516404-breaking-encryption-with-a-quantum-computer-just-got-10-times-easier/

(Paywall-free)

Such a machine...is not feasible to build any time soon.

So when your CISO or a vendor starts going off about "post-quantum" security, feel free to use this to remind them that we still have SMB1 in some places and Telnet in others. Plenty of work to do around the house.

Quantum Computer Cracks ‘Tiny’ Cryptographic Key | ForkLog

forklog.media

@mttaggart

Oh wow, this topic

I think there are so many angles here (this could make a fun podcast discussion)

So I think there's the angle of nobody talks about or publishes about what I'll call "boring stuff". Fixing SMB1 and telnet is boring

So new ideas and research get all the attention. As many old timers know 99% of these new ideas and research go absolutely nowhere

Thanks to this noise factory, there's nobody talking about the boring stuff (even though I think there should be)

So how do you get attention in this constant noise?

And even the leaders who know better will play the game because movie plot threats will get you more budget than the boring stuff will

@joshbressers Is there any angle where quantum encryption concerns require investment today?

@mttaggart No realistic concern

But there are plenty of pretend concerns that will get you budget :)

@joshbressers @mttaggart If you're lucky.