The most selectively believed-in verse in the conservative catechism is the idea that "incentives matter."
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Recently re-read Soros’ short talk on reflexivity. This is where the participants changed the fundamentals.
He is a painfully clear writer and his remarks about how economies cannot be described with equations that treat its participants like they were subatomic particles. The participants create dynamics which have a lifetime, but you can’t model the system without discovering and representing them.
Prediction markets look like exactly what he was talking about
Cory Doctorow
GhostOnTheHalfShell