Dario Amodei likes to give bold predictions in the spring. Last year it was that, within 12 months, AI would be able to write 100% of all code. I didn’t believe him and I was wrong. It only took one step change to get from where we were then to where we ended up in November 2025.
His new prediction is that in 6-12 months it will be able to do the entire end-to-end software development workflow, without any of the guidance and judgement that is currently still required by humans.
Goodbye! 👋🏻
I believe him this time because I do think that capability is one step change away and I have no reason to believe we are at the top of the s-curve.
Fundamentally: the difference between the output I get from Claude Code and the final code I ship is guidance that I supply to Claude Code through text on my computer. Input-output-input-output-input-output. Any consistent input-output data set on a computer is a curve that models can be fit too. I have a finite amount of guidance I can supply.
Kyle Hughes
Tyler Hillsman
Joe Fabisevich 