Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

Number of new online accounts on Polymarket platform betting a total of $70,000 suggest ‘some degree of inside info’

The Guardian
If the administration decides to end this stupid war just so they can cash out some profitable bets... I don't even know what I would think. The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt.

That would be darkly hilarious, but I think it could also be the opposite way around: That there is a ceasefire shaping up, and some of Trump's staffers couldn't hold it anymore and placed bets using their knowledge - therefore accidentally "leaking" the plans.

At least I'm having my hopes up for this.

Or further, the bets themselves could be an attempt at market manipulation.