Cyber.mil serving file downloads using TLS certificate which expired 3 days ago

https://www.cyber.mil/stigs/downloads

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So what? They keep shortening the validity length of these certificates, making them more and more of a pain to deal with.
because you need to automate it
Which is yet another chore. And it doesn’t add any security. A certificate expired yesterday proves I am who I am just as much as it did yesterday. As long as the validity length is shorter than how long it would take somebody to work out the private key from the public key, it is fine.
Shortening certificate periods is just their way of admitting that certification revocation lists are absolutely worthless.
Right. It's the same debate about how long authorization cookies or tokens should last. At one point in time--only one--authentication was performed in a provable enough manner that the certificate was issued. After that--it could be seconds, hours, days, years, or never--that assumption could become invalid.
Isn't that why certificates expire, and the expiry window is getting shorter and shorter? To keep up with the length of time it takes someone to crack a private key?
No. The sister comment gave the correct answer. It is because nobody checks revocation lists. I promise you there’s nobody out there who can factor a private key out of your certificate in 10, 40, 1000, or even 10,000 days.

I thought I remembered someone breaking one recently, but (unless I've found a different recent arxiv page) seems like it was done using keys that share a common prime factor. Oops!

Fwiw: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.22720

When RSA Fails: Exploiting Prime Selection Vulnerabilities in Public Key Cryptography

This paper explores vulnerabilities in RSA cryptosystems that arise from improper prime number selection during key generation. We examine two primary attack vectors: Fermat's factorization method, which exploits RSA keys generated with primes that are too close together, and the Greatest Common Divisor (GCD) attack, which exploits keys that share a common prime factor. Drawing from landmark research including Heninger et al.'s ``Mining Your Ps and Qs'' study, which discovered over 64,000 vulnerable TLS hosts, and B{ö}ck's 2023 analysis of Fermat factorization in deployed systems, we demonstrate that these vulnerabilities remain prevalent in real-world cryptographic implementations. Our analysis reveals that weak random number generation in embedded devices is the primary cause of these failures, and we discuss mitigation strategies including proper entropy collection and prime validation checks.

arXiv.org

It's also a "how much exposure do people have if the private key is compromised?"

Yes, its to make it so that a dedicated effort to break the key has it rotated before someone can impersonate it... its also a question of how big is the historical data window that an attacker has i̶f̶ when someone cracks the key?

An expired cert is a smell. It shows somebody isn't paying attention.

And a short expiration time absolutely increases security by reducing attack surface.

Or that someone asked to renewed it, one of their four bosses didn't sign off the apropriate form, the only person to take that form to whoever does the certs is on a vacation, person issuing certs needs all four of his bosses to sign it off, and one of those bosses has been DOGE-ed and not yet replaced.

expired letsencrypt cert on a raspberrypi at home smells of not paying attention... with governments, there are many, many points of failure.

It did until it got so short that it created a new potential attack surface — the scripts everyone is using to auto update them.
Compared to the manual processes these scripts replaced, I'd put more trust in the automations.
And the original article shows you how that is going

On the one side all the users will need to prove their ID to access websites, and on the website side the site will have to ask permission to continue operating at ever increasing frequency.

That is the future we have walked into.

Using old compromised certificates is a legitimate MITM attack vector.
Which would make sense if they were valid for 10 years and somebody forgot about them. Not when they’re valid for, what is it now, 40 days?

An official government source is teaching users to ignore security warnings about expired certificates.

Mistakes happen, some automation failed and the certs did not renew on time, whatever. Does not inspire confidence but we all know it happens.

But then to just instruct users to click through the warning is very poor judgement on top of poor execution.

This was the predictable outcome of shortening certificate length validity to appoint where they are now.
DNSSEC+DANE will fix it. Soon we will have self-signed certificates once again!
I can't wait. Now I can screw up DNSSEC and take out my entire domain in the process.
And in turn making revocation less & less of a pain. Since that was more of the pain, overall it's getting easier.