Mike HoneyHere's the latest variant picture for Australia, to early March.
BA.3.2.* "Cicada" grew as high as 42%, before finishing at 29%.
NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus" finished at 39%, while XFG.* "Stratus" rebounded to 24%.
#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia
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The recent rise of BA.3.2.* has been driven by Queensland where it reached 58%, and also New South Wales, where it grew to 52%.
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After a long delay, data was recently shared from Queensland, catching up to NSW, SA & WA.
No new data has been shared from Victoria, to add to the very small batch shared last week.
No data has been shared from Tasmania since October.
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Using the new data shared last week, here's the recent variant picture for Queensland, to the end of February.
Growth of BA.3.2.* seemed to accelerate in mid-February, carrying it to dominance at 54%.
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Reported cases from Queensland have shown a fresh wave is underway, which we now know is being driven by the emergence of BA.3.2.* "Cicada".
The growth rate looks lower than the two prior waves, and the level or reported cases is around half the prior wave in July-August, which was driven by NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus". OTOH the current level is over double the recent trough.
It’s hard to know or estimate the ascertainment rate (intensity of testing) over that time-span. I expect it has declined to some degree.
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Hospitalisations with COVID-19 in Queensland have perhaps just started to reflect the BA.3.2.* "Cicada" wave. The data currently lags reported cases by almost 1 week, and there’s a further natural lag from cases to hospitalisations of 1-2 weeks.
So given there are no signs of a proactive public health response, we can expect to see this wave impact the Queensland health system once again over the coming weeks.
https://www.health.qld.gov.au/clinical-practice/guidelines-procedures/diseases-infection/surveillance/reports/flu
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BA.3.2.* has struggled to make a major impact elsewhere, as described on this thread and linked threads. Hopefully, that pattern will continue in Queensland, New South Wales and the other states which are probably lined up for their own BA.3.2.* waves.
https://aus.social/@mike_honey_/116277622646626387
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https://aus.social/@mike_honey_/116277622646626387
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Mike Honey (@[email protected])
Attached: 1 image Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to early March. XFG.* "Stratus" continued to dominate, roughly flat at 56% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" was also flat at 27%. BA.3.2.* "Cicada" grew marginally to 8%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Global 🧵