Mike HoneyHere's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to early March.
XFG.* "Stratus" continued to dominate, roughly flat at 56% frequency.
NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" was also flat at 27%.
BA.3.2.* "Cicada" grew marginally to 8%.
Here’s a great explainer thread from Variant Hunter Ryan Hisner on why BA.3.2.* has been struggling to dominate, and what it might need to succeed.
https://skyview.social/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbsky.app%2Fprofile%2Fryanhisner.bsky.social%2Fpost%2F3mhjbiycxus2j&viewtype=tree
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https://skyview.social/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbsky.app%2Fprofile%2Fryanhisner.bsky.social%2Fpost%2F3mhjbiycxus2j&viewtype=tree
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A BlueSky thread by Ryan Hisner on Skyview
While the final outcome for BA.3.2 is uncertain, its distinct characteristics—extensively remodeled/shortened spike NTD & SD1/SD2, novel S2 mutations, & wholesale deletion of ORF7a/7b/8—make it the best candidate for co-dominance we've seen yet, which could mark a new era in SARS-2 evolution. 1/34
The new “double K444N + D446N mutation” that Ryan described as a "major change" has only been reported in France and the Netherlands so far. It was recently classified as lineage SQ.1.1.
It’s too early to assess growth rates, but here’s a map of the spread so far.
Locations are approximate - typically country and state/province.
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Ryan added a follow-up thread on the history and impact of the K444N mutation.
https://skyview.social/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbsky.app%2Fprofile%2Fryanhisner.bsky.social%2Fpost%2F3mhm7nmmhus2z&viewtype=tree
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https://skyview.social/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbsky.app%2Fprofile%2Fryanhisner.bsky.social%2Fpost%2F3mhm7nmmhus2z&viewtype=tree
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