RE: https://infosec.exchange/@bontchev/116271481696841313

Oh good grief, this summary is both farcical and tragic: also, Trump has fucked air travel for at least the next two years, never mind automobiles and logistics. The supply chain shock will get as bad as 2022 within a couple of months—then keep getting worse.

@cstross Trump and the people around him are absolute morons, yes, but there is a weird motivated thinking desire among many to breathlessly claim US military hardware - which Trump had no hand in the development of - somehow sucks.

The F-35, for all its infamous flaws, is working better than experts expected. It was never designed to be fully stealthy - it emits radar so it can see and shoot at enemy aircraft.

And SM-3 continues to be phenomenal.

But the awesome performance of some systems

@cstross really does not change the fact that there never was any way to "win" this Iran War. You just have to look at this size, terrain, population layout of Iran compared to Iraq 2003 to get an idea of what sort of invasion force would have been necessary.

And there aren't any neighbors to Iran eager to become an invasion staging area.

So ... Iran will win. Period. They'll get bombed and stuff, and then ... they'll win.

@isaackuo Yep.

For people who've never looked at a map (most Americans, apparently), my synopsis is, "Iran is Mordor". Big-ass empire surrounded on all sides by water or mountains. Also, it's on the other side of the world from the USA. Also-also, the littoral approaches are all naval death-traps. There's a REASON the Persian Empire didn't get conquered very often, and it's geopolitics!

@cstross @isaackuo A couple of days ago I saw someone claiming that it is closer (in straight line) from Poland to Iran than from the NW corner of Iran to the SE corner. Turns out it's true - the latter distance is ~2270 km, while the former is only ~2000 km.
@cstross @isaackuo BTW the missiles Iran shot at Diego Garcia allegedly fled much farther than 2000 km that Iran claimed was the maximum range of their weapons – actually, close to 4000 km; most of Europe (except Ireland, Portugal, and parts of Spain) falls within 4000 km of Iran.