RE: https://infosec.exchange/@bontchev/116271481696841313

Oh good grief, this summary is both farcical and tragic: also, Trump has fucked air travel for at least the next two years, never mind automobiles and logistics. The supply chain shock will get as bad as 2022 within a couple of months—then keep getting worse.

@cstross Trump and the people around him are absolute morons, yes, but there is a weird motivated thinking desire among many to breathlessly claim US military hardware - which Trump had no hand in the development of - somehow sucks.

The F-35, for all its infamous flaws, is working better than experts expected. It was never designed to be fully stealthy - it emits radar so it can see and shoot at enemy aircraft.

And SM-3 continues to be phenomenal.

But the awesome performance of some systems

@cstross really does not change the fact that there never was any way to "win" this Iran War. You just have to look at this size, terrain, population layout of Iran compared to Iraq 2003 to get an idea of what sort of invasion force would have been necessary.

And there aren't any neighbors to Iran eager to become an invasion staging area.

So ... Iran will win. Period. They'll get bombed and stuff, and then ... they'll win.

@isaackuo Yep.

For people who've never looked at a map (most Americans, apparently), my synopsis is, "Iran is Mordor". Big-ass empire surrounded on all sides by water or mountains. Also, it's on the other side of the world from the USA. Also-also, the littoral approaches are all naval death-traps. There's a REASON the Persian Empire didn't get conquered very often, and it's geopolitics!

@cstross @isaackuo A couple of days ago I saw someone claiming that it is closer (in straight line) from Poland to Iran than from the NW corner of Iran to the SE corner. Turns out it's true - the latter distance is ~2270 km, while the former is only ~2000 km.
@blotosmetek @cstross @isaackuo translating to US English for USonian audiences: Iran is like the Texas of the Middle East.
@caesarologia @cstross @isaackuo Actually, Iran is about 2.5 times bigger than Texax, with land area 1 648 195 km² vs 676 587 km²…

@blotosmetek @caesarologia @isaackuo Iran is very nearly as large as Mexico (90% of the area), 75% of the population (with a LONG history of resisting invaders), surrounded by mountains, and the closest points in CONUS and Iran are 7500km apart. (Unlike Mexico, where there's a land border.)

US folks who think "Iraq, Iran, what's the difference?" need to think in terms of "one is Ukraine (only crappier), the other is Russia (minus Siberia)" to get anywhere close to the scale of the problem.