Charlie StrossMar 22

Meanwhile, a thought about the Macbook Neo:

The Neo uses an A18 Pro SOC, the 2024 iPhone Pro cpu—the iPhone 17 Pro runs on the A19 Pro. (The Neo soaks up their stockpile of high-end phone rejects.)

Apple's about to ramp up for the 2026 iPhones, which will release in September on the A20Pro.

Phones outsell laptops by a huge margin so I think the current Neo will be quietly replaced by an A19 Pro model in September, to use up the reject stockpile once as iPhone 17 sales tapers off.

/1

Show threadCharlie StrossMar 22

Implication: if you want a Macbook Neo this year, maybe wait until September—unless you expect the coming supply chain shock to hit Apple, too. Which is not impossible if TSMC can't meet their chip delivery dates.

If that happens, prices will shoot up and scarcity economics will take over, so buy now and be prepared to run it for the next decade.

/2

Show threadGraydonMar 22

@cstross Taiwan is dependent on natural gas for electrical generation. Reports vary about their stockpile, but I haven't seen anything that suggests they might have more than 20 days. And like the rest of East Asia they're supplied from the Persian Gulf.

All by itself, that hit on Qatar's LNG facilities makes me think Apple will not escape the supply shock.

The other part of this is that no one who isn't Apple wants to see "it's a phone" laptops. Other parties may encourage the Neo to fail.

Show threadPhil Sutherland
@graydon @cstross I'm embarrassed to point out that Australia exports LNG in quantities similar to Qatar and the US - mostly to Japan, China, ROK and Taiwan. In 2022 we were providing around 40% of Taiwan's LNG needs, so the current gulf stupidity by itself won't entirely cut Taiwan off. Of course, Australian LNG is an important transitional fuel and not a climate problem at all, honest! Source: this Australian Government fossil fuel puff piece:
https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/future-gas-strategy/6-remaining-reliable-trading-partner-lng-and-low-emissions-gases
Mar 22 at 1:30pmWeb
Show threadGraydonMar 22

@philsuth @cstross I see numbers that put Taiwan's primary electrical generation at 90%+ natural gas. Australia can't double what it sends to Taiwan without shorting someone else, which won't fly when they're all going to be massively short, too.

Taiwan is already likely to be into "change of government" levels of public dissatisfaction, just from the probable period of electricity rationing. Industrial production will take a hit. East Asia as a whole may decarbonize hard in response to this.