RE: https://infosec.exchange/@bontchev/116271481696841313
Oh good grief, this summary is both farcical and tragic: also, Trump has fucked air travel for at least the next two years, never mind automobiles and logistics. The supply chain shock will get as bad as 2022 within a couple of months—then keep getting worse.
@rpluim @cstross already happening in some countries, and if Trump targets Iranian energy then I imagine that the response probably ends up even worse.
And Iran hasn't even started on non conventional warfare like flying smuggled in drones into US refineries, data centres or world cup stadia
Israel has the world's best air defence and it can't keep their missiles out.
@rpluim @cstross Manhattan wil be under water in 50 years anyway at current rates.
The previous Iranian leader issued a fatwah prohibiting nuclear weapon usage but they blew him up so who knows
Seems they like finely calculated responses. Like the DIego Garcia attack when Starmer decided to help the US. Easy to shoot down but the clear message being "actually we can hit London if we want"
And for the world cup they just need to blow up one stadium that's empty just before a game.
@rpluim @etchedpixels @cstross
Does it matter if they have plutonium?
Do they have Shaheeds? Yes
Is Russia willing to pay for them? Yes
What is the Shaheed to plutonium exchange rate on the black market?
@rpluim @etchedpixels @cstross
The worst case is that he hasn't destroyed Iran's nuclear program and in their desperation they somehow manage to cobble together an NK level nuke. And they would instantly use it.
@CrypticMirror @rpluim @etchedpixels Pre-air strikes Iran had 400kg of 20% enriched U235 which is enough for about 6-10 A-bombs, depending how well-designed. Enough trip or two through the gas ultracentrifuge cascade could take that to 60% at which point they could make far more efficient bombs—maybe a few dozen.
That horse had left the stable by 2020 at the latest.
The reason they haven't used a nuke yet is probably because they don't want to or see any benefit from it.
@CrypticMirror @rpluim @etchedpixels Probable reasons Iran hasn't nuked anyone:
1. A couple of A-bombs are not a strategic deterrent.
2. Without an SD backing it up, one nuke would invite massive retaliation—by Netanyahu (absolutely guaranteed), from Trump (highly likely).
The main military effect of a single nuke today would be political disinhibition: the worst having happened, the next step is escalation. And Iran can't win that game.
@CrypticMirror @rpluim @cstross makes no sense to do so. Their non nuclear missiles can remove all of Israel's electricity supply, what else would they achieve - nothing.
And the previous supreme leader actually issued a religious edict against nukes.
Remember these people are religious zealots and their holy book does have things to say on right and wrong.
Charlie Stross
Robert Pluim 🇪🇺
The Penguin of Evil
JulesJones
Leeloo
In Search of a Better World