Joanna Bryson, blathering

They told us at school that the reason nuclear deterrence wasn't a unilaterally good thing was because some day a crazy dictator might actually use a weapon. Probably not the USSR, somewhere more religious and sure they were right.

This article IMO indicates insanity. https://www.wired.com/story/iran-war-puts-global-energy-markets-on-the-brink-of-a-worst-case-scenario/

"If the war drags on and energy facilities keep being targeted, it’s hard to overstate how devastating its ripple effects could be to the global economy."

Iran War Puts Global Energy Markets on the Brink of a Worst-Case Scenario

“This will be so, so, so, so, so bad,” one analyst says.

WIRED
Mar 22 at 8:33amIvory for iOS
Show threadJoanna Bryson, blathering1d ago
The head of the International Energy Agency told the Financial Times on Friday that the war represented the greatest threat to global energy supply “in history,” and said that financial markets were underestimating the impact of the conflict.
Show threadJoanna Bryson, blathering11h ago
Trump threatened Iranian energy structure (a war crime) so Iran threatened the water supply of the entire region (also a war crime.) https://www.linkedin.com/posts/david-riedman_last-night-the-us-president-threatened-to-activity-7441476308276051968-jrXe
Last night, the US president threatened to attack Iran's civilian power infrastructure (a war crime) if Iran does not open the Strait by 8pm eastern time on Monday. Iran responded by threatening to… | David Riedman | 80 comments

Last night, the US president threatened to attack Iran's civilian power infrastructure (a war crime) if Iran does not open the Strait by 8pm eastern time on Monday. Iran responded by threatening to destroy the region's desalination plants if their power infrastructure is attacked. Here are my takeaways from this significant escalation: 1. If the US was "winning" this war, the president would not be targeting civilian assets. This means the US is either ineffective or incapable of identifying or reaching key military targets. When the US can no longer degrade the key military capabilities (e.g., IRGC leadership, drone launchers), the US is resorting to attacks on civilians to undermine any remaining stability in the country. 2. If the goal was a regime change, a new US-friendly regime needs electricity and basic services to run the country or else it will devolve into chaos regardless of leadership. 3. The US military is out of ideas for how to reopen the Strait so they are resorting to war crimes under the Geneva Convention. 4. Iran has far more power than they did before the war started. A single rocket or drone attack on a ship carrying 2-3 million barrels of oil would be catastrophic. For long range drone attacks, hitting only 10 highly vulnerable targets can make the region unlivable by cutting off drinking water. This will make billions of dollars of investments by US companies in the region worthless. The asymmetric advantage Iran holds is pretty incredible and exactly why no prior world leader was naive enough to start a major war in the region. Unfortunately, I think the next step will be 10,000 Marines on the ground by the end of March. That will turn into 100,000 by June...then 200,000...then 500,000...and then continue to escalate until there is a change in US political leadership. | 80 comments on LinkedIn

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