Tom MorrisMar 21

“Who could have predicted this?”

Oh, literally everyone… except the effective altruist superpredictor AI rationalist bros who were super-hyped about prediction markets.

The moment money is riding on an outcome, there’ll be people trying to manipulate the outcome. See: every dodgy cockney East London boxing promoter in a Guy Ritchie movie.

https://www.techdirt.com/2026/03/19/prediction-markets-promised-better-information-instead-theyre-creating-powerful-incentives-to-corrupt-information/

Prediction Markets Promised Better Information. Instead They’re Creating Powerful Incentives to Corrupt Information.

There’s a concept in economics known as Goodhart’s Law, often summarized as: “When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.” The idea, originally about mo…

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Show threadRichard Barrell
@tommorris "who could have predicted this" yikes that essay about the idea of using prediction markets as a mechanism for plausibly deniably paying out money to assassins is only a few decades old now????
Mar 21 at 10:05pmWeb