alephnerdIran launched unsuccessful attack on UK's Diego Garcia
The fact that it was unsuccessful does not make it any less worrying. Iran was a regional problem before the war, but this new escalation shows they’re a threat to the entire world. They might have previously had a chance at a Vietnam or perhaps a Korea-style stalemate
The IRGC is fighting for survival, most Iranian want them gone, and Iran will be better as a whole if the IRGC is all dead. Don't try to conflate the government with the country, they don't always align.
Most Iranians do not want the IRGC gone, that's US/Israeli propaganda. Thousands of people have been marching in support of the IRGC. Common sense would also tell you that Iranians aren't going to support the people bombing their schools.
> Iran will be better as a whole if the IRGC is all dead
Which is an impossibility. We're talking about a military force of more than a million religiously fervent men that have martyrdom as a core tenet of their religion. They are not going anywhere, and assasinating their leaders and bombing their bases will not make them easier to enforce anything on.
The opposite: Trump and Netanyahu have just proven to the bulk of the Iranians that the mullahs were right all along. They have helped IRGC more than they've hurt them by taking out their leadership. The mistake here is to think that the IRGC is structured along the lines of NATO or something like that. It really isn't. It's more like a 'instant guerilla mix' where all you have to do is add some water and stir it up. They learned a lot of lessons from looking at Iraq and the fact that their command structure is still in place should tell you something.
This is simply not true. I'm Iranian and I wish it were but IRGC has more support than you think. There is at least 30-40% of the population who support it and within those, more than half will gladly die for the regime.
My home country has more than 90M people and 40% of that equates for millions of supporters.
From the outside, you are only hearing the diaspora talking points, which don't realistically represent Iran. Many of them have grievances with the regime, or have been exiled after the Shah.
Iran is a complex country and it's hard for outsiders to grasp it, mainly because the censorship happening on both sides.
I personally think this war was a major mistake, no Iranian is going to cheer for US or Israel after watching their children being killed by them. The west was doing a good job exporting liberal ideas to Iran slowly over the past 3 decades. Some of those were starting to drip into the country, but this war undid all that effort.
If anything, the attack on Iran has increased their support.
US and Israel don't give two fucks for the people of Iran. If they did they wouldn't have been under such crippling sanctions.
Irani people want to control their own destiny, not as a vassal of US-Israel backed power.
Iran's best bet I think is to negotiate with the IRGC to earn reforms. I suspect that if IRGC doesn't feel so threatened they might even get them.
There's a lot of commentary here along the lines that Iran is now a threat to Europe. Yes the capability might exist but it is not in Iran's interest and have never shown such interest or ambition. India certainly has missiles that can reach parts of Europe, capability does not signal intent.
US and UK have screwed the relation up by organising coup, scuttling democratic processes, downing domestic passenger jet without apology, setting Saddam Hussein and his chemical weapons at them and the economically ravaging them with sanctions.
As for nukes, with Israel and undeclared nuclear power right next door, it's a very reasonable ask for any country that wants to control its own destiny. In fact had it had one, the current conflict would not have happened.
There is at least 30-40% of the population who support it and within those, more than half will gladly die for the regime.
Sobering, and (speaking as an American) all too familiar here at home.
Cults suck.
Unless you're talking about the US military you're wrong here. MAGA is not willing to sacrifice anything. It's a bully mindset and bullies take, they don't give.
MAGA is not willing to sacrifice anything.
They're willing to sacrifice the rest of us, just like the mullahs. As long as other people are hurting more, MAGA is happy to sacrifice whatever is asked of them.
It's a literal cult. To understand that, all you have to do is imagine a Biden, an Obama, or a Harris saying and doing the things Trump has said and done in the last 30 days alone. "Some of you may die, and gas prices may go up for a while, but that's a chance I'm willing to take. Oh, also, Imma need 'bout $200 billion, kthx."
> They're willing to sacrifice the rest of us
It's a transaction: they'll pay more for gas for a month to feel strong and powerful. That's a good exchange. They feel like they're winning. But there's no way they're putting their life on the line for anything.
So no, it's not a sacrifice. If they were to lose their position of strength they'd roll over in a second. Not just the followers but the leaders too. I mean imagine if Hegseth or Trump was captured by Iran. They would shit their pants give them anything they want. Anything to get back to their comfortable bed. Because they have zero principles. You don't need priciples if you're not being tested. That's why bullies bully, because they think there are no consequences.
You are absolutely deluded if you think the removal of the IRGC will result in any improvement in the situation of the Iranian people. The US and Israel want to bomb he place into a lawless wasteland, even if a secular democracy was to arise it would make no difference.
It’s trivial for either the US or Israel to do that with one phone call (completely destroy infrastructure on kharg island and the gas fields, this yields an Iranian failed state). The fact it hasn’t happened proves you wrong.