When reporters would ask me about "how will the public see the effects of DOGE?" my answer was pretty unsatisfying. 1. Performance declines in orgs that deliver direct and measurable services (e.g. IRS, VA, SSA) 2. Emergencies reveal lack of expertise when you need it. The Iran war is a #2 case.

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:uzcbz3hsqpwdv5ulkxqa2ubn/post/3mhikk3jdrk22
Like this guy fired a bunch of FBI officials with expertise on Iran *right before* a war with Iran. Pretty fucking stupid! bsky.app/profile/atru...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:4llrhdclvdlmmynkwsmg5tdc/post/3mhgawyde732y
Its hard to connect specific personnel decisions to declining government capacity, partly because capacity is a hard-to-measure concept. But clearly, the US govt would benefit from having smart and informed people who know what the fuck they were talking about when it comes to Iran.
Trump/DOGE perspective: Iran experts were untrustworthy/dead wood and it was costless to fire them. Federal employee perspective: building up decades of very specific experience isn't worth it under conditions where you can be fired for no reason. So less reason to do so in the future.