Compression–Resonance Thermodynamic Index (CRTI): A Domain-General Early-Warning Diagnostic for Systemic Breakdown

The Compression–Resonance Thermodynamic Index (CRTI) is introduced as a domain-general diagnostic for systemic over-compression in complex adaptive systems. Building on Ulanowicz’s ascendency–overhead framework and Ashby’s law of requisite variety, CRTI is defined as the ratio of adaptive reorganization capacity R to structural compression Φ. The central hypothesis is that systemic breakdown — including conflict escalation — is driven less by insufficient order than by excessive structural constraint that suppresses the system’s capacity to process perturbations adaptively. CRTI is operationalized through non-overlapping proxy indicators derived from distinct data domains, with outcome variables strictly reserved for validation. Threshold behavior is derived endogenously from the bifurcation structure of a coupled dynamical system rather than stipulated a priori. The framework generates testable predictions distinguishing adaptive from discharge regimes and positions CRTI as a prospective early-warning indicator rather than a retrospective classifier.Resource type: PreprintKeywordsCRTI · structural compression · adaptive capacity · early warning · complex adaptive systems · systemic breakdown · bifurcation · resilience · conflict escalation · complexity scienceLanguage: EnglishLicense: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)