RE: https://mastodon.social/@urlyman/116232524241982831
Additional note: when foodprices rocket, that is ALMOST ALWAYS the trigger for civil unrest and revolutions. (The other is a fiscal/tax/revenue crisis, caused by government turning into rent-seeking by the rich *and* trying to fund a war simultaneously, as with the French Revolution.)
Does this look familiar to you, too?
@cstross Right-to-repair is a huge issue for farm equipment.
One of the reasons is not so much that the OEM prices are high is that the stocks of spares are sized based on the order rate against the high prices; you order it, they make it, and you get it many weeks later.
Combine "the software servers are down" with "the supply chain to the plant that makes spares is disrupted" with "fuel prices are too high for profitable farming according to the financial system" and food supply shrinks.
@cstross What I think people don't get is that the farm skillset in the US is in old people (on the whole and by and large), COVID has been hard on them, and the ethnic cleansing has taken away big chunks of the skills base.
Compelled system change in a context where you've got some patrician landowners and invalidated-axioms agribusiness and not much else is not going to hold together so well. Then throw in the extreme weather events, plural, the US has already had through the Midwest.
@cstross A lot of this has been driven by a desire to re-open Russia's sales channels so they can afford their war of conquest. (Dropped sanctions by the US, calls from the EU right, etc.)
We're seeing late stage Carbon Binge efforts to use military force to be the last supplier standing.
What we aren't seeing yet is the Coalition to Decarbonize; I think we're gonna, and then we're going to see military efforts to prevent any such thing.
Society insists you buy gas, even when there isn't any.
@otfrom @cstross It's de-facto everyone vs the US, once you realize that Russia and the US are the same entity. (Same aristocracy, same strategic goals, same issues with fading glory, same memetic capture by TESCREAL and mammonism).
From that perspective, one may recognize the UK ongoing political wrangle as being over whether the emotional comfort of identifying with the fading glory faction is worth the economic devastation.
The USA could have been the driving force behind world transport/renewable electrification, but we didn't have the political will nor the insight.
Much like VHS videotape and the transistor radio, the US invented something, looked at it, said "meh", and continued doing what we were doing. Another country (Japan before, China now) looked and said "Ooooooh, we can use that!" Japan also did a similar move with small, excellent cars when the US couldn't be bothered.
China realized there's no future in polluting with coal nor in buying oil - it's a mug's game.
They made a calculated political decision to take over the world solar market, and to be the driving force behind world electrification. (Maybe something only possible in a command economy.)
Result? Lots of money coming into China for solar panels and electric cars / bikes. Economic destruction of the petroleum car and petroleum extraction industries. The world looking to China as the provider of energy needs, instead of the US and the Middle East.
Oh, and BTW, much cleaner air and water, and maybe slowing down climate change.
@PhilSalkie The US had both; what it didn't have was a way to stop the original October Surprise.
@graydon @PhilSalkie @cstross the thing about oligarchies is that they are really unstable, they play for keeps, and we're just collateral damage.
I don't think that the EU/China/India oligarchy vs the US/Russia oligarchy (non petro-states vs petro-states?) is any more stable than any other.
I am surprised how historical contingency forces new and unexpected forms though.
@PhilSalkie @otfrom @cstross @graydon
America invented electricity?
Faraday, Swan and many others would beg to differ.
@cstross @WellsiteGeo @otfrom @graydon
"Electrification" should have specifically been "Renewable Electrification", which is the key point here. An electrified world driven solely by coal is a disaster - what China has realized is that there is no beating the economics of free fuel, so the winning move is not to keep milking the stranded assets of fossil fuels, but to be the go-to solar supplier for the planet. Can't sell the fuel anymore? Sell the hardware that uses the free fuel. And as a byproduct? Cleaner air, healthier populace, less crazy weather.
They're already converting their existing coal infrastructure from baseload generation to adaptive, which will mean less coal burned and more flexibility for handling weather related variation in renewable generation.
Battery storage - lithium ion cells invented in the US and Germany. World leaders in the field now? China. They realize that storing power as pumped hydro is absurdly inefficient, as is storing power as Hydrogen. Battery round trip efficiency is in the 90s, and inverters can respond to grid stabilization requirements orders of magnitude faster than a peaker plant. Just have to get the production infrastructure to the point that churning out storage systems is just like turning a crank.
An interesting thing in the EV world - BYD is installing charge stations with multiple 1.5MW outlets. Every _week_ they install more stations than the entire 4-year US NEVI project will.
@cstross @WellsiteGeo @otfrom @graydon
If the US isn't careful, in 10 years we will look like some sort of Victorian steampunk retro theme park in comparison to the rest of the world's zero-carbon electric future.
@WellsiteGeo The US was well ahead in solar photo-voltaic technology in the 1970s; for what would have been his second term, Carter ran on a platform of 25% renewables by 2000.
A lot of oil money woke up and objected in ways which were most probably extra-legal in order to install Reagan. (They absolutely did know at the time that climate change would kill many, many people. That was part of Carter's stated motivation.)
@graydon @WellsiteGeo @PhilSalkie @otfrom @cstross
He put solar panels on the roof... Regan took them down
@otfrom @cstross @graydon It's very much the case that China and the EU want an embedded CO2 tariff as a way of preventing the US from using older plants with a lower marginal cost of production from undercutting newer zero-CO2 plants which are still paying down their loans for the construction.
Not all zero-carbon industrial capital goods are as fortunate as electricity generation with the zero-carbon plant costing less to buy than the four-year running cost of the carbon-emitting plants. There's real pain involved in moving steel production to be zero-carbon.
When the timing is right, China and the EU will do a deal on a revised international trading system. India is a little further behind decarbonisation, but China will be looking for somewhere to sell its solar and wind goods once the Chinese market is mostly satisfied, so it wouldn't shock me if decarbonisation in India was astonishingly fast, maybe 15 years.
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