Whenever 1 perceived coalition-in-waiting gets a nose ahead of the other in a political poll, over-excited talking heads start making a fuss about what that might mean. But the significance of polling is not about any 1 snapshot and the theoretical seats in Parliament it translates to, but what the polling data tell us over months or years.
(1/?)
Looking at the trends since 2023, the 2 blocs have been roughly neck-and-neck the whole time. Suggesting we're heading for a hung Parliament in 2026.
Partisan squabbling about which of the 6 parties currently in Parliament to support hasn't moved the needle on that for 3 years. Chances are it's not going to between now and November.
The Right-Going Zax has squared off with the Left-Going Zax, and neither will move aside. Something has to give.
(2/?)
What's needed to get a significant majority one way or the other is 1 or more parties dropping out of Parliament, or 1 or more parties coming in. The latter would make Parliament more representative than the former.
(3/?)
But this is hard to do, since governments of both hues have pointedly ignored the 2012 Electoral Commission advice to lower the threshold for turning party votes into seats;
"The party vote threshold should be lowered from 5% to 4%.
There should be a statutory requirement for the Electoral Commission to review the operation of the 4% party vote threshold ..."
https://elections.nz/assets/2012-report-of-the-Electoral-Commission-on-the-review-of-mmp.pdf
(4/?)
In the last Taxpayer's Onion Curia poll, Opportunities (cyano-tories) were sitting on just under 2%, just ahead of NZ Outdoors and Freedom (conspiracy greens);
https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/tucur_mar2026poll
I'm sceptical about Opportunities. Especially because they were set up specifically to be 'the Greens but tied more to Nat apron strings'. But they push a number of policies I actively support, at least on the face of it (eg UBI funded by taxes on wealth), and others are at least food for thought.
(5/?)
I was intrigued when Raj Manji became Opportunities leader. Manji is a former investment banker who talks about Modern Monetary Theory rather than cleaving to the debunked dogmas of neoclassical economics. He did good work as a city councillor in Ōtautahi, and in the "listening project" with families of Muslims killed by the Christchurch shooter.
(6/?)
But I was quickly disillusioned when he tried to get a cup of tea with CLuxon. Intending to horse-trade Opportunities support for a Nat-lead government for an Epson-style deal in the Ilam electorate, which seemed cynical and self-serving. Although it was justified as a way to as a way to keep Winston First out of the coalition. And evading the 5% threshold, turning Opportunities votes into MPs, using the coat-tail rule (also recommended for the chop in 2012 by the Electoral Commission).
(7/?)
Having said all that, I'm much more impressed by Opportunities than the Outdoors and Freedom party, whose policies are about as detailed as the Cannabis Party's. No shade on the latter, I've run for them as a candidate. But it's a protest party, the policy platform is supposed to be a bunch of handwaves in a general direction ('more of this, down with that').
As for the brainworms brigade of the New Conservatives (1.7%) and the theocra-fascists of Vision NZ (0.2%), well, 'nuff said.
(8/?)
I've scoffed at this idea, here and elsewhere, but maybe 2026 could be the Year of the Opportunities Party on the Desktop ... er ... in Parliament? Maybe regardless of which Chris ends up in the PM chair, and which bunch of milquetoast yes men end up in Cabinet, maybe it would be a good things to have Opportunities somewhere in the mix?
Certainly if I'm talking to anyone who just can't bring themselves to vote Greens, for whatever reason, I'll ask them if they've considered voting #TOP.
(9/?)
The other potential cat among the pigeons in the 2026 election is Te Pāti Māori. Maybe, as the aforementioned talking heads have excitably predicted, they're toast in November.
But TPM have been quiet this year, and hopefully no news is good news. If they've been holding hui, listening to their flaxroots, and rebuilding from the ground up, maybe they can come back from strong again by the time the election campaign proper kicks in?
(10/?)
One thing Te Pāti Māori supporters could do in November is vote strategically. Until they can count on enough support to get to 10% and increase their MP count beyond the electorates they'll win if they're strong, a party vote for them is essentially wasted. If they split their vote - TPM for electorate, party vote for, say, Greens or Opportunities - they could help boost the fortunes of 2 other smaller and somewhat progressive parties.
(11/?)
Strypey